Bankroll Growth Simulator
See how your bankroll could grow over time, accounting for real-world variance, not just a perfect scenario.
Your expected deviation from the bookmaker price. 0% = no deviation (a long-term loss to the margin).
Every bet has the same stake: $10 (1% of the starting bankroll).
Bankroll growth paths
How to read this
- •The spread of the lines shows variance: the wider the range, the bigger the swings along the way.
- •A high risk of ruin means your stake is too big relative to your deviation. Lower the stake or switch to Half Kelly.
- •Focus on the median, not the best run: extreme outcomes are rare.
This simulation is for educational purposes only and is not a guarantee of future results. Please bet responsibly.
Why use a bankroll simulator?
Even a profitable betting strategy never grows in a straight line. Short losing and winning streaks (variance) can swing your balance hard. This simulator runs hundreds of random scenarios (Monte Carlo method) based on your parameters and shows not a single "ideal" result, but the full distribution of possible outcomes.
That way you see not only the median (the typical result), but also the best and worst scenarios and how high the risk of ruin is for a given stake size.
It is an educational tool that helps you pick a sensible stake size and realistic expectations before you risk real money.
How does the simulator work?
You set the parameters
Bankroll, average odds, your deviation and the number of bets.
We roll hundreds of scenarios
Each bet is simulated at the hit rate implied by the odds and edge (Monte Carlo).
You analyse the distribution
You see the median, the extreme scenarios and the risk of ruin, i.e. real variance.