Draws Analysis
DrawsFind matches where draws are most likely based on historical data
What the draw analysis shows
For every match we compute the probability of a draw from the draw rate in both teams' recent matches — home and away separately — from the head-to-head record and from the goal average: low-scoring matches are drawn more often. The list is sorted from the highest probability down.
The draw is a market most bettors avoid and bookmakers price by template: odds of 3.10–3.40 on almost any even match, whatever the teams' profile. Yet the gap between a team that draws 35% of its games and one that draws 18% is enormous — and that gap is where the value is.
How to use the draw predictions
Look for matches where both teams have a high draw rate and a low goal average, and the odds exceed 3.20. A draw at 32% probability and odds of 3.40 (29%) is a bet with an edge; a draw between two attacking sides at 3.60 usually is not.
Do not put draws in accas. At a hit rate around 30% a losing run is normal and the bankroll has to survive it — singles, flat stakes, over dozens of bets. The draw is a market of patience, not excitement.
When a draw is most likely
Evenly matched, low-scoring teams; mid-table matches with nothing at stake; and fixtures where a point suits both — the final rounds where a draw means survival or promotion. In some leagues (Serie B, Ligue 2, several South American leagues) the draw rate exceeds 30% over a season.
At the other end: high-scoring leagues and matches with a clear favourite. The more goals, the smaller the chance of an even split — 0-0 and 1-1 make up almost all draws, and 3-3 is rare.
Frequently asked questions
- Does a draw count in Draw No Bet?
- No — Draw No Bet refunds the stake on a draw; it is not a bet on the draw. To back the draw itself, use the 1X2 market (X) or the correct scores 0-0 / 1-1. Double chance 1X and X2 include the draw, but at much shorter odds.
- Why are draw odds almost always around 3.20?
- Because roughly 25% of matches are drawn in almost every league and bookmakers price from that average, adjusting mainly for the favourite's strength. They rarely account for the teams' profile — which is exactly the gap the draw analysis exploits.
- How is this database different from the tips for today?
- It is the full list of the day's matches with the draw probability and any date back. The tips pages show a short, frozen list of selected events — here you browse everything and decide yourself.
- What does Premium unlock in draws?
- Without an account you see the first matches of the day with the draw probability. Premium shows the whole list, each team's draw rate home and away, the H2H, goal averages, and any past day.