What counts towards the card total?

Our averages count yellow and red cards shown during the match. Bookmakers differ on second yellows and cards shown after the whistle, so check the rules for the specific market you are betting.

Why 30 matches and not five?

Card counts swing hard from game to game, so a five-match sample mostly measures noise. Thirty matches is long enough for a team's disciplinary record to show through.

Does the referee matter more than the teams?

Often, yes. Our figures describe the teams, so treating the referee's record as a separate check on top of them is sensible.

Cards tips for today

Fixtures for October 30, 2026

Cards

Today's fixtures where both sides have been collecting cards at a high rate.

Chile · Segunda División16:30

Santiago CityLinares Unido

Expected cards

6.1

Average cards per match: 6.1
Matches over 4.5 cards: 74%
Matches analysed: 37

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX02:00

Alebrijes de OaxacaMineros de Zacatecas

Expected cards

5.8

Average cards per match: 5.8
Matches over 4.5 cards: 74%
Matches analysed: 47

Israel · Liga Alef12:30

Hapoel Bnei MusmusHapoel Migdal HaEmek

Expected cards

5.8

Average cards per match: 5.8
Matches over 4.5 cards: 69%
Matches analysed: 58

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See how often these picks landThe full table of settled picks from the last 30 days: our figure, the actual result and the hit rate.

How card markets work

Card markets are about the number of yellow and red cards in a match. Bookmakers offer them as over/under lines (most often 3.5, 4.5 or 5.5 cards), and some price booking points, where a yellow and a red count differently.

For each team we take the last 30 matches and average the total cards shown in them, then combine both sides into an expected figure for the fixture. We also record how many of those matches went over 4.5 cards, which shows whether the average rests on a steady pattern or on a couple of chaotic games.

Use the expected figure to compare fixtures and the over-4.5 share to judge how reliable it is. Referee appointments, derbies and relegation pressure all push card counts up and are worth weighing when you assess a line.

Frequently asked questions

What counts towards the card total?: Our averages count yellow and red cards shown during the match. Bookmakers differ on second yellows and cards shown after the whistle, so check the rules for the specific market you are betting.
Why 30 matches and not five?: Card counts swing hard from game to game, so a five-match sample mostly measures noise. Thirty matches is long enough for a team's disciplinary record to show through.
Does the referee matter more than the teams?: Often, yes. Our figures describe the teams, so treating the referee's record as a separate check on top of them is sensible.