Cards tips for today

Card markets ask how many yellow and red cards a match produces. Bookmakers offer them as over/under lines — most often 3.5, 4.5 or 5.5 cards — and some price booking points instead, where a yellow and a red carry different weights.

For each team we take the last 30 matches and average the total cards shown in them, then combine both sides into an expected figure for the fixture. We also record how many of those matches went over 4.5 cards, which shows whether the average rests on a steady pattern or on a couple of chaotic games.

Use the expected figure to compare fixtures and the over-4.5 share to judge how reliable it is. Referee appointments, derbies and relegation pressure all push card counts up and are worth checking before you back a line.