Trends of the Day

Trends of the Day gather every basketball module's strongest picks in one place: game totals, handicaps, team points, team threes, players, HT/FT breaks, the 1st quarter, overtime and the schedule. Each headline is the pick its module chose at its default settings — with its historical rate and, where a bookmaker has a price, the market price and the value.

Tapping a headline opens the game in the module it comes from, with the full reasoning: both teams' form, the lines, the history and the market. At the bottom of the page are the form streaks — today's teams on at least five wins or losses in a row.

From each module we take its top six of the day — the module ranks them itself, by the strength of the pick — and keep only the clear ones: totals on the right side of the line in at least 60% of games, a historical rate of 55% or more, or value at the market price. Across modules the headlines are ordered by strength: the rate above 50%, the value and, for totals, the share of games weighted by the games behind it. HT/FT breaks and overtime are rare events, so for them value counts most. Threes have no market prices, so Team Stats adds the games its module marks as more or fewer than usual, with a lower weight than the priced picks.

Trends create no new picks and have no model of their own — they are an overview of what the modules show today. That is how you see in one place which games come up in several modules at once.

A winning streak or a high hit rate over recent games is no guarantee: short runs often even out, and the bookmaker knows the form just as well. That is why next to each trend we always show the historical rate and the market price — only comparing them tells you whether the price is higher than history implies.

Lines and prices move until tip-off, and the list refreshes every few minutes. Picks on games that have already started stay on the list until the end of the day.