Close Games & Overtime
BasketballThe day's most even games: how often similar games went to overtime or were level at half-time — with the fair price and the market price.
What the Overtime module shows
Overtime comes when the game is level after four quarters — in basketball about one game in 22. For every game of the day we check how often similar past games went to overtime and list the games from the most even. Next to the rate you see the fair price and the market's price for overtime (or the 1X2 draw); Premium adds a list for the half-time draw.
The rate comes from the projected margin — the same as on the game page and in the Handicaps module: both teams' form and the league's home edge — and from a score model fitted on 10,789 games over two seasons. The details show how the margin spreads, both teams' close finishes and overtimes, H2H and how often games in the league go to overtime.
How to read the overtime rate
Even the most even game is level after four quarters only about 5% of the time — a fair price of roughly 20.00. A level game is still 1.7 times as frequent as the spread of results alone would say: the side behind plays for the tie at the end, and one-point finishes are rarer.
Bookmakers price overtime with a wide margin: a typical 12–15 implies 7–8%, more than historical data shows. So value on overtime is the exception, not the rule — the module flags it only when the market pays more than the fair price. When the projection and the market are far apart, check for a reason: injuries, or a new roster early in the season.
What a close finish means
28% of games end within 5 points after four quarters, 32% in the most even pairings. When the margin after three quarters is 5 points or less, overtime follows in 7.3% of games — half as often again as on average, a useful pointer for live betting.
A team's history in close games is interesting background but a weak forecaster: we checked that the share of close finishes and overtimes in recent games adds nothing to the rate from the projected margin. So we show it alongside, and the rate rests on the strength of both teams.
Frequently asked questions
- Is a draw after 4 quarters the same as overtime?
- Yes. "Overtime: yes" and the draw in the 1X2 market (the result after regulation time) settle alike — they win when the game is level after four quarters. The exception is a two-legged tie, whose first leg can end level without overtime.
- Where does the overtime rate come from?
- From the projected margin — both teams' form over the chosen number of recent games (5–30) and the league's home edge — and from a score model fitted on 10,789 games: a spread of about 13.5 points, with a level game 1.7 times as frequent as a normal distribution says. The rates match how often games actually went to overtime: from 5% in the most even to 2% with a clear favourite.
- Why is value on overtime so rare?
- Because bookmakers take a big margin on this market. A typical 12–15 stands for 7–8%, while in historical data even close games went to overtime about 5% of the time. Value appears when one bookmaker pays clearly more — we flag it on the list, and Premium can sort by value.
- What does Premium unlock?
- Without Premium you see today's games for overtime and part of the list. Premium adds the half-time draw list, every game of every day with the top three, sorting by value, up to 30 games of history and the market's prices: overtime yes/no, the 1X2 draw and the half-time draw — in one Premium together with football.