What is an HT/FT break in basketball?

A half-time/full-time result in which the side leading at half-time loses the game. 1/2 — the home side leads at the break, the away side wins; 2/1 — the other way round. The game's result includes overtime, so it never ends level.

Where does the break rate come from?

From the projected points margin at half-time and at the end of the game: both teams' first halves and whole games over the chosen number of recent games (5–30) and home advantage in the league, worked out from its finished games. From the spread of results in historical data we work out how often similar games ended in each of the six HT/FT outcomes.

What do the fair price and value mean?

The fair price is 100 divided by the historical rate — the price that matches how often the outcome came up in similar games. Value means the market pays more than the fair price; it is a comparison with history, not a promise of a win.

What does Premium unlock?

Without Premium you see today's games and part of the list. Premium gives you every game on every day, the top three included, the 1/2 and 2/1 filters, value ordering, up to 30 games of history and market prices for all six HT/FT outcomes — in one Premium together with football.

HT/FT Breaks

Basketball

Games in which the team leading at half-time most often lost the game — with a 1/2 or 2/1 pick, the fair price and the market price.

What the HT/FT Breaks module shows

A break is a half-time/full-time bet in which the side leading at half-time loses the game: 1/2 when the home side leads at the break and the away side wins, 2/1 the other way round. For every game of the day we check how often similar past games ended in each of the six HT/FT outcomes and show the break the historical data points to.

The rate comes from both teams' first halves and whole games and from home advantage in the league — separately for the half and for the game. Next to it are the fair price (100 divided by the rate), the market's price and the share of both teams' games in which the half-time leader lost.

How to read the rate and the fair price

A break is a rare result — in a typical game it happened somewhere between a few and fifteen or so per cent of the time, which is why the prices are high. What matters is not the rate alone but how it compares with the price: if 1/2 came up in 14% of similar past games, the fair price is 7.14; a market price of 9.00 means value, a price of 6.00 means none.

The strongest signal is three things together: a high historical rate, value at the market's price and teams whose games often turned around. A single break is still a high-risk bet — historical data is a statistic, not a certainty.

What makes a game turn

In basketball the break rarely settles a game: a half is 20 minutes (24 in the NBA) and dozens of possessions, and overtime always produces a winner. Breaks are more frequent between evenly matched teams and with sides that start slowly and finish strongly — or the other way round.

Rotation, back-to-back games and the end of the season, when favourites rest their leaders, matter too. That is why, next to the historical rate, we show each team's average margin in both halves, the leads it lost and the deficits it overturned in its recent games.

Frequently asked questions

What is an HT/FT break in basketball?: A half-time/full-time result in which the side leading at half-time loses the game. 1/2 — the home side leads at the break, the away side wins; 2/1 — the other way round. The game's result includes overtime, so it never ends level.
Where does the break rate come from?: From the projected points margin at half-time and at the end of the game: both teams' first halves and whole games over the chosen number of recent games (5–30) and home advantage in the league, worked out from its finished games. From the spread of results in historical data we work out how often similar games ended in each of the six HT/FT outcomes.
What do the fair price and value mean?: The fair price is 100 divided by the historical rate — the price that matches how often the outcome came up in similar games. Value means the market pays more than the fair price; it is a comparison with history, not a promise of a win.
What does Premium unlock?: Without Premium you see today's games and part of the list. Premium gives you every game on every day, the top three included, the 1/2 and 2/1 filters, value ordering, up to 30 games of history and market prices for all six HT/FT outcomes — in one Premium together with football.