Methodology
How PredictStats works: data, methods and track record
This page explains where our numbers come from, what a percentage on the site means, how a fair price and a value are worked out, and how every published tip is recorded and settled. The figures below are read from the same records the rest of the site shows.
The figures today
As of November 4, 2026 at 03:46 AM (Warsaw time).
Insider record, Polish channel
644 settled tips from September 2025 to November 2026: +523.43 units at the odds published with each tip, a yield of +22.81% and average odds of 2.21.
Tips from 3 September 2025 to 27 September 2026 were copied into the record by hand from the Telegram channel. They are marked "Added manually" and have no send time. Since 27 September 2026 every tip is written to the record automatically at the moment it is sent, with its send time.
Every tip, one by oneFree daily lists, last 90 days
- Tips of the day: 173 settled picks, 50.0% came in, yield +11.87% at flat 1-unit stakes.
- Favourites: 170 settled picks, 74.2% came in, yield +7.53% at flat 1-unit stakes.
- MoneyFlow gems: 139 settled picks, 59.8% came in, yield +13.75% at flat 1-unit stakes.
Corner data
91,806 finished matches in 615 leagues between November 3, 2025 and November 2, 2026, 9.5 corners per match on average.
Corner statistics by leagueWhat a percentage on the site means
A percentage next to a match is a historical frequency: how often that outcome happened in the two teams' comparable past matches. The statistics modules count each team's last 20 matches by default (the reader can change the window) and leave a team out when it has fewer than 10 matches with data. Value bets count the last 25 matches, the daily tips pages 30.
It describes the past, not the next match. It is read next to the odds: 100 divided by the odds is the share the bookmaker's price implies, and a frequency above that share is what the site calls value.
Fair price and value
The fair price of a pick is 100 divided by its historical frequency: an outcome that happened in 50% of comparable matches has a fair price of 2.00. The value is how far the bookmaker's odds sit above that price, (odds ÷ fair price − 1) × 100%, so odds of 2.20 against a fair price of 2.00 are a value of 10%.
A value is a price comparison, not a forecast. A pick with a large value still loses often, and a list of value picks only means something over hundreds of them.
MoneyFlow: prices against a sharp market
MoneyFlow does not use our statistics. Our engine compares the odds of licensed bookmakers, around the clock, with the market of a sharp, high-limit bookmaker after removing that bookmaker's margin, in football, basketball, tennis and ice hockey; a move of the sharp market reaches the board within seconds. A licensed bookmaker paying more than that no-margin price is listed with the size of the gap, the sharp bookmaker's limit and how the line moved. The free lists read the same board every two minutes.
The money figures in Money Tracker are estimates worked out from line moves and limits, not a bookmaker's turnover. Each signal keeps its closing-line value in the archive: how its price compared with the last price before kick-off.
How tips are recorded and settled
Insider: every tip goes to subscribers on Telegram before kick-off with its odds and its stake in units, and is settled after the match at those odds from the official result: won, lost or void, with half results on Asian lines. Losing tips stay in the record. The record shows results before the Polish 12% stake tax; the record page has a switch that deducts it.
Free daily lists: a pick enters a list when a licensed bookmaker's odds clear the list's bar against the sharp market's no-margin price, at most three a day per list, with the odds and the minute of recording. Each is settled after the match at the recorded odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Until 7 September 2026 two of the lists were taken from the statistical model at 08:30; picks from those days are marked as such in the archive.
The results pages of the daily tips grade past model picks against the real results, one market at a time. They are recalculated with the same model and pre-match window, so they show how well the frequencies held up, not a betting record.
Nothing is removed
Nothing is deleted or re-priced after publication: losing tips, void tips and quiet months stay in the record, and every total on the site is computed from those rows.
Where the data comes from
Fixtures, results and match statistics come from a commercial sports data provider; where it has no corner count, a live match tracker fills the gap. Odds are read from the bookmakers' public offers by our own engine, around the clock.
Machine-readable data
The same figures as JSON, for anyone who wants to check them or quote them:
- https://api.predictstats.com/vip-tips/stats?tipGroup=Insider%20PL
- https://api.predictstats.com/vip-tips?tipGroup=Insider%20PL&page=1&limit=200
- https://api.predictstats.com/picks-ledger/stats?days=90
- https://api.predictstats.com/picks-ledger/day?date=YYYY-MM-DD
- https://api.predictstats.com/corners/league-averages
Compared with other sites
How PredictStats compares with FootyStats, Forebet, and OddsPortal, feature by feature, with the date of each check and its sources. See the comparisons
Who is responsible
PredictStats is run by PREDICT STATS sp. z o.o., a company registered in Poland (KRS 0001176159). It is not a bookmaker and takes no bets. Company details and how to check us
Play responsibly
For adults only. A historical frequency is not a promise, and betting can lose money. Set a limit before you play and stop when it is reached.