What is a team points line?

A bet on one team's points regardless of the opponent's: over or under the line a bookmaker sets, for example 82.5. Overtime counts in the whole game and the second half, not in the first half or the quarters.

Where does a team's points projection come from?

From the team's points scored and the opponent's points allowed over the chosen number of recent games (5–30), with both teams' strength gap and the league's home edge — the same as Points Over/Under. The rate of over and under reads that projection moved three quarters of the way to the market's line, with a spread fitted on 21,580 team-games.

Why does the historical rate differ from the recent record?

A record is just a dozen or so games, often against other opponents and in other venues. The model accounts for the actual opponent, the home edge and the natural spread of points, so it is steadier. We show the record as a complement.

What does Premium unlock?

Without Premium you see today's whole-game team lines and part of the list. Premium adds halves and quarters, every team of every day with the top three, sorting by value, up to 30 games of history, and market prices with the spread of lines across bookmakers — in one Premium together with football.

Team Points

Basketball

Every team of the day against its own points line: the projection, how often similar past games ended over and under the line, the fair price and the market's. In the details: the team's scoring, the opponent's defence, H2H and the lines around the market's.

What the Team Points module shows

Bookmakers set a points line not only for the whole game but for each team on its own — say, the home side over 82.5. The module puts every team of the day against its line: how many points the model projects, how often similar past games finished over and under, the fair price, and whether the market's price holds value.

The projection combines the team's points scored with the opponent's points allowed, and shares out the strength gap and the home edge exactly as Points Over/Under and the game page do. The details show both sides' recent games as bars against the line, the record at the lines around the market's, the meetings and the spread of lines across bookmakers.

How we work out the historical rate

A team's points spread around the projection, more widely the more points it scores: about 10.7 points at a projection of 75 and 12.3 at 115 for the whole game, 7–9 in a half and 5–6 in a quarter. We fitted that spread on 21,580 team-games of two seasons — the rates matched how often teams actually went over the line to within half a percentage point.

The market's line, though, knows line-ups, injuries and new players the form has not seen yet: on the first 44 games with an archived line the market missed by 10.5 points on average, the projection alone by 11.6. So the rate reads the projection moved three quarters of the way to the line — a big gap still counts, the false "edges" of an old roster do not. 58% means a fair price of 1.72; if the market pays more, there is value.

What to watch out for

A team line for the whole game and the second half includes overtime — a tie after four quarters usually adds a few points to both sides. The first half and the quarters have no overtime. Remember too that bookmakers know the line-ups and injuries: when the projection is far from the line, check whether the team is missing a key player.

Early in a season the form comes from the previous one, so we flag those games and move them to the end of the list. In the details you can switch to the other team of the game and see its projection, line and historical rates without closing the window.

Frequently asked questions

What is a team points line?: A bet on one team's points regardless of the opponent's: over or under the line a bookmaker sets, for example 82.5. Overtime counts in the whole game and the second half, not in the first half or the quarters.
Where does a team's points projection come from?: From the team's points scored and the opponent's points allowed over the chosen number of recent games (5–30), with both teams' strength gap and the league's home edge — the same as Points Over/Under. The rate of over and under reads that projection moved three quarters of the way to the market's line, with a spread fitted on 21,580 team-games.
Why does the historical rate differ from the recent record?: A record is just a dozen or so games, often against other opponents and in other venues. The model accounts for the actual opponent, the home edge and the natural spread of points, so it is steadier. We show the record as a complement.
What does Premium unlock?: Without Premium you see today's whole-game team lines and part of the list. Premium adds halves and quarters, every team of every day with the top three, sorting by value, up to 30 games of history, and market prices with the spread of lines across bookmakers — in one Premium together with football.