What is a player line (prop)?

A bet on one player's numbers in a game: points, rebounds, assists, threes made, or points, rebounds and assists together (PRA). The bookmaker sets a line, say 19.5 points, or milestones such as 20+. Overtime counts; if the player does not play, the stake comes back.

Where does a player's projection come from?

From his average over the chosen number of recent games (5–30), shrunk to the mean because short runs even out, and adjusted for how many points the opponent allows against the league. The rate at each line comes from a distribution fitted on 195,000 appearances and, where a bookmaker has a price, three quarters from the market.

Why does the historical rate differ from the recent record?

A record is only a handful of games, often with other minutes and against other opponents. The model accounts for the regression to the mean, the opponent and the natural spread of the player's numbers, so it is steadier. We show the record next to it as a complement.

What does Premium unlock?

Without Premium you see today's player points and part of the list. Premium adds rebounds, assists, threes and PRA, every player of every day with the top three, sorting by value, windows of up to 30 games and every bookmaker line for the player — in one Premium together with football.

Players

Basketball

Every regular of today's games against his own lines: points, rebounds, assists, threes and PRA — the projection from his form and the opponent's defence, how often similar past appearances cleared each line, the fair price and the market's. In the details: game by game, home and away, starting and off the bench, the games against this opponent and every bookmaker line.

What the Players module shows

Bookmakers set lines not only on the game but on single players: points, rebounds, assists, threes and the three together (PRA), and milestones such as 20+ points. The module puts every regular of today's games against his lines: what the model expects from him, how often similar past appearances cleared each milestone, the fair price, and whether the market's price holds value.

The list starts with the chosen stat's leaders. The details show game by game as bars against the line, the home–away, starting–bench and last-five splits, the games against the same opponent and every bookmaker line for the player.

How we work out the historical rate

The projection is the player's recent average, shrunk to the mean — a player who scored 30 a game over five games usually scores less in the next — and adjusted for the opponent's defence. Around it his numbers spread unevenly: there are 40-point games but no minus-10 ones, so a 20-point scorer reaches 20 in fewer than half his games. We fitted that spread on 195,000 appearances over two seasons; the rates matched what happened to within one or two percentage points.

A bookmaker, though, knows the minutes, the rotation and the injuries the box score has not seen yet. On the first 730 points milestones with a stored price, a quarter of the model and three quarters of the market did best — so that is how the rate reads where a price exists. Without one, the rate is the form's alone, and the pick is the highest milestone that similar past appearances reached at least half the time.

What to watch out for

We list only players who played their team's latest game and average at least 15 minutes: one who missed the latest game plays the next only 39% of the time. Line-ups are still confirmed only before tip-off — if the player does not take the court, bookmakers return the stake and a saved pick settles as void.

Early in a season the form comes from the previous one, so we flag those players and move them to the end of the list. A player line includes overtime, as bookmakers settle it.

Frequently asked questions

What is a player line (prop)?: A bet on one player's numbers in a game: points, rebounds, assists, threes made, or points, rebounds and assists together (PRA). The bookmaker sets a line, say 19.5 points, or milestones such as 20+. Overtime counts; if the player does not play, the stake comes back.
Where does a player's projection come from?: From his average over the chosen number of recent games (5–30), shrunk to the mean because short runs even out, and adjusted for how many points the opponent allows against the league. The rate at each line comes from a distribution fitted on 195,000 appearances and, where a bookmaker has a price, three quarters from the market.
Why does the historical rate differ from the recent record?: A record is only a handful of games, often with other minutes and against other opponents. The model accounts for the regression to the mean, the opponent and the natural spread of the player's numbers, so it is steadier. We show the record next to it as a complement.
What does Premium unlock?: Without Premium you see today's player points and part of the list. Premium adds rebounds, assists, threes and PRA, every player of every day with the top three, sorting by value, windows of up to 30 games and every bookmaker line for the player — in one Premium together with football.