Handicaps

For every game of the day we project how much one team will beat the other by: the gap between their average point margins in recent games — counted more fully the more games stand behind it, since over a few games part of the gap is luck — plus home-court advantage worked out separately for each league from its finished games. We set that against the bookmakers' handicap — the sharp line, or the market median without it.

The list starts with the games where our projection is furthest from the handicap. Each game has a pick on the side the numbers favour — the favourite giving points or the underdog taking them — and the share of both teams' games in which that handicap would have won. It works for the whole game, the 1st half and the 1st quarter.

A -6.5 handicap means the favourite must win by at least 7 points. +6.5 on the underdog wins if it loses by 6 or fewer, or wins outright. On a whole line such as -6, a win by exactly 6 is a push. Our line is the projected margin rounded to half a point — the further it is from the market's line, the bigger the edge of the pick.

Look at three numbers together: the gap between our line and the market, the cover rate in recent games and how much the teams' results swung. A big edge with a high cover rate and low volatility is the strongest signal; a gap alone, on a few games of history, is not a certainty yet.

Home-court advantage in basketball is clear and differs by league — in the NBA it is a little under 2 points, in many European leagues 3 to 4. We work it out from each league's finished games of the last two years, which is why the same gap in averages gives a different projection in the EuroLeague than in the NBA.

The end of a game moves the handicap more than the total: a favourite far ahead brings on the bench, a team behind fouls on purpose. That is why we also show each team's share of close games — in those, the last minute decides, not form.