Does overtime count towards the 4th quarter?

No. Every quarter is settled on its own and without overtime, which is why a draw is a possible result of a quarter — it happens in about 5% of quarters.

Where does the rate of won quarters come from?

From both teams' strength over the chosen number of recent games (5–30): the gap between their average point margins, shared out over the quarters and weighted by the number of games, plus home advantage in that quarter in the league. In the 1st quarter their own first quarters carry a quarter of the weight. We checked it on over a thousand games: the rates match how often quarters actually ended that way.

What is the quarter with the most points?

A market on the quarter in which both teams together score the most. We work it out from the projected points of each quarter and how much they vary, and show beside it which quarter scored the most in both teams' recent games.

What does Premium unlock?

Without Premium you see today's games for the 1st quarter and part of the list. Premium gives all four quarters, every game on every day including the top three, value ordering, up to 30 games of history and market prices for every quarter and for the quarter with the most points — in one Premium together with football.

Quarters

Basketball

The day's games from the quarter winner with the highest historical rate — the 1st quarter free, the 2nd to 4th with Premium — with the fair price from historical data and the market's. In the details: all four quarters, both teams' quarter profiles, the quarter with the most points, and the recent games and meetings.

What the Quarters module shows

Every quarter is a mini-game with its own market: a home win, a draw or an away win — always without overtime. For every game of the day we check how often similar past games ended in each of the three results in each of the four quarters and show the side the data points to, with the fair price and the market's.

The rate comes from both teams' strength in their recent games — in the 1st quarter mixed with their own first quarters, because a fast start is a real habit — and from home advantage in that quarter, worked out separately for each league. The details show the projected score of every quarter, both teams' quarter profiles, the quarter with the most points, and the recent games and meetings quarter by quarter.

How to read the rate of won quarters

A quarter is short, so even a clear favourite loses quite a few of them — 60–65% of quarters won in similar games is already a strong number, and a draw happens in about 5% of quarters. What matters is the rate against the price: at 62% the fair price is 1.61; a market price of 1.80 means value, a price of 1.50 means none.

Look at the quarter profile too: a team that regularly wins first quarters and gives the lead back in the second is more interesting for the 1st quarter than for the whole game. With only a few games of history treat such patterns with care — which is why the profile sits beside the rate and the rate rests mainly on the teams' strength.

What shapes a quarter

Starting line-ups usually play the first quarter, so it is decided by the leaders and the opening plan; home advantage is at its largest then. Bench players come in during the second and third quarters, and the fourth depends on the score: the leader slows down, the side behind fouls and shoots threes.

On average the most points come in the 1st quarter and the fewest in the fourth, when the game slows — though in a close game fouls and free throws can turn that around. The league matters as well: an NBA quarter lasts 12 minutes, a European one 10.

Frequently asked questions

Does overtime count towards the 4th quarter?: No. Every quarter is settled on its own and without overtime, which is why a draw is a possible result of a quarter — it happens in about 5% of quarters.
Where does the rate of won quarters come from?: From both teams' strength over the chosen number of recent games (5–30): the gap between their average point margins, shared out over the quarters and weighted by the number of games, plus home advantage in that quarter in the league. In the 1st quarter their own first quarters carry a quarter of the weight. We checked it on over a thousand games: the rates match how often quarters actually ended that way.
What is the quarter with the most points?: A market on the quarter in which both teams together score the most. We work it out from the projected points of each quarter and how much they vary, and show beside it which quarter scored the most in both teams' recent games.
What does Premium unlock?: Without Premium you see today's games for the 1st quarter and part of the list. Premium gives all four quarters, every game on every day including the top three, value ordering, up to 30 games of history and market prices for every quarter and for the quarter with the most points — in one Premium together with football.