A pick whose market price is higher than the fair price implied by its frequency in recent games. The deviation shows how much higher. It is a statistic, not a certainty.

Where does the price come from?

It is the median of the bookmakers' prices on the market's main line, the one most of them price. The sharp price does not enter the median: it stands beside it as a price without the margin.

How often are the value bets refreshed?

After every odds update, and every three hours for all upcoming games with odds. On game day we fetch the odds more often, most often in the last hours before face-off.

What does Premium unlock?

Without Premium you see three free picks for today: the highest deviations at odds of 1.50–1.90, for 60 minutes. Premium opens every value bet of every day, including finished games with each pick's result, the game with overtime, the periods and the filters. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.

Value Bets

+EVHockey

Odds higher than the teams' record suggests.

Premium filters:

What the Value Bets module shows

The bookmakers' price on the main line of every market of a hockey game, set against how often both teams' recent games or their head-to-head meetings landed on that pick. The markets are game and team goals, the handicap and the result: after 60 minutes, in the game with overtime and in the periods.

The deviation is the frequency times the price, minus one: it says how much higher the market's price is than the fair price from history. Next to it is the sharp price without the margin, as a second reference.

How to read a value bet

Odds of 2.10 at a 55% frequency give a deviation of +15.5%. It is a gap in pricing, not a gain: the frequency comes from a dozen to a few dozen recent games, so a single pick can lose despite a positive deviation.

Quarter lines such as 5.25 settle half and half, so a game can count as half. Returned stakes do not count towards the frequency.

Which markets the module covers

The ones bookmakers price in most games: goals, the handicap and the result after 60 minutes, the winner of the game with overtime, and in the NHL and AHL also goals and the puck line with overtime. Plus the goal lines, handicaps and result of every period.

We leave out markets priced rarely or by a single bookmaker: team goals in periods, both teams to score, overtime yes/no, the exact score and goalscorers. For the handicap and the result, the frequency comes from the teams' head-to-head meetings.

Frequently asked questions

What is a value bet?: A pick whose market price is higher than the fair price implied by its frequency in recent games. The deviation shows how much higher. It is a statistic, not a certainty.
Where does the price come from?: It is the median of the bookmakers' prices on the market's main line, the one most of them price. The sharp price does not enter the median: it stands beside it as a price without the margin.
How often are the value bets refreshed?: After every odds update, and every three hours for all upcoming games with odds. On game day we fetch the odds more often, most often in the last hours before face-off.
What does Premium unlock?: Without Premium you see three free picks for today: the highest deviations at odds of 1.50–1.90, for 60 minutes. Premium opens every value bet of every day, including finished games with each pick's result, the game with overtime, the periods and the filters. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.