Where does a team's percentage come from?

From the goal model: the team's expected goals from its recent games and the opponent's goals conceded, pulled towards the league average and read together with what the market's price at its line says.

Do overtime goals count?

Over 60 minutes, no. In the version with overtime, yes, together with the goal for a won shootout, as that bet settles.

Why does one game have two rows?

Because each team has its own goals line. The home side can have an Over pick and the visitors an Under pick in the same game.

What does Premium unlock?

Without an account you see the day's first pick with the full analysis, and with a free account three picks a day, for today and for 60 minutes. Premium means all teams on every day, the lines with overtime, up to 30 games of history and the market's full prices. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.

Team goals

Hockey

Every team of the day against its own goals line.

Direction

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What the Team Goals module shows

Every team playing on the day against its own goals line, over 60 minutes or in the game with overtime. A game has two rows, one per team, and the pick is the Over or the Under of that team's line.

The percentage comes from the model: the team's expected goals from its attack and the opponent's defence, pulled towards its league's average and read together with the market's price at the line. The list starts with the highest percentage, and value decides between equal percentages.

How to read a team line

A 2.5 line means the Over wins with three or more goals from the team. Only its goals count: over 60 minutes without overtime, and in the game with overtime together with the goal for a won shootout.

Compare the percentage with the odds: the fair price is 100 divided by the percentage, and when the market's price is higher, the pick has value. The analysis also shows a ladder of lines with the percentage and the record, the team's goals, the opponent's goals conceded and the head-to-head meetings.

What moves a team's goal total

The opponent's goalie and the power play matter most: a team that often plays with the man advantage gets more scoring opportunities. Late in the game the leading team sometimes scores into an empty net, which raises its total.

Averages alone can mislead: 20 games is a small sample, so the model pulls extreme numbers towards the league average. The league matters too, because different competitions see different numbers of goals.

Frequently asked questions

Where does a team's percentage come from?: From the goal model: the team's expected goals from its recent games and the opponent's goals conceded, pulled towards the league average and read together with what the market's price at its line says.
Do overtime goals count?: Over 60 minutes, no. In the version with overtime, yes, together with the goal for a won shootout, as that bet settles.
Why does one game have two rows?: Because each team has its own goals line. The home side can have an Over pick and the visitors an Under pick in the same game.
What does Premium unlock?: Without an account you see the day's first pick with the full analysis, and with a free account three picks a day, for today and for 60 minutes. Premium means all teams on every day, the lines with overtime, up to 30 games of history and the market's full prices. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.