Where does the overtime percentage come from?

From the goal model: both teams' expected goals from their recent games give a distribution of the score after 60 minutes, and we read the draw from a table fitted to how often draws actually happened.

Which market price is shown?

The overtime price from the “overtime yes/no” market or, when there isn't one, the price of a draw after 60 minutes, which settles the same way. For the 1st period it is the price of a draw in that period.

Does overtime always end in a shootout?

No. Some games are decided by a goal in overtime, and there is a shootout when nobody scores in overtime. The game analysis shows what share of the league's overtimes end in a shootout.

What does Premium unlock?

Without an account you see the day's first pick with the full analysis, and with a free account three picks a day, for today. Premium means all games on every day, the 1st period draw, up to 30 games of history and the market's full prices. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.

Overtime and level games

Hockey

Games most often level after 60 minutes or after the 1st period.

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What the Overtime and Level Games module shows

For every hockey game of the day the goal model works out how often such a game is level after 60 minutes, that is, goes to overtime, and how often it is level after the 1st period. Next to it are the fair price from that percentage and the market's price.

The list starts with the most value at the market's price, then with the highest percentage. The game analysis also shows results within one goal, the share of the league's overtimes decided in a shootout, both teams' close games and their head-to-head meetings.

How often a hockey game goes to overtime

In our data from two seasons, 21.5% of games went to overtime and 33.8% were level after the 1st period. More than a third of overtimes end in a shootout. For a single game the model usually gives 14% to 23%, so the differences between games are small.

That is why the price says the most in this module. The fair price is 100 divided by the percentage; when the market's price is higher, the pick has value. It is a statistic, not a certainty.

When a draw after 60 minutes is more common

A draw after 60 minutes is more common when the teams are evenly matched and score few goals. With a clear favourite or a high goals projection, the score stays level to the end less often.

The league matters too: overtime is more frequent in some leagues, and in a few a game can end in a draw without overtime. The analysis shows the game's league against all leagues.

Frequently asked questions

Where does the overtime percentage come from?: From the goal model: both teams' expected goals from their recent games give a distribution of the score after 60 minutes, and we read the draw from a table fitted to how often draws actually happened.
Which market price is shown?: The overtime price from the “overtime yes/no” market or, when there isn't one, the price of a draw after 60 minutes, which settles the same way. For the 1st period it is the price of a draw in that period.
Does overtime always end in a shootout?: No. Some games are decided by a goal in overtime, and there is a shootout when nobody scores in overtime. The game analysis shows what share of the league's overtimes end in a shootout.
What does Premium unlock?: Without an account you see the day's first pick with the full analysis, and with a free account three picks a day, for today. Premium means all games on every day, the 1st period draw, up to 30 games of history and the market's full prices. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.