Where does a period's percentage come from?

From that period's goal model: both teams' expected goals in that part of the game give a distribution of results, and we read the draw from a table fitted to how often draws actually happened. We combine that percentage with the market's price without the margin.

Does overtime count towards the 3rd period?

No. Each period settles only on the goals scored in it, without overtime or the shootout.

How often does a period end in a draw?

In our data from two seasons, about 34% of 1st periods ended level, 31% of 2nd periods and 28% of 3rd periods.

What does Premium unlock?

Without an account you see the day's first pick with the full analysis, and with a free account three picks a day for the 1st period, for today. Premium means all games on every day, the 2nd and 3rd periods, the market's prices for every period and up to 30 games of history. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.

Periods

Hockey

The period result the odds pay most for, by our model.

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What the Periods module shows

For every hockey game of the day, a pick on the result of the chosen period: home, draw or away. The percentage comes from that period's goal model, read together with the market's price on its result.

The pick is the result the price pays the most for against the model, a draw included. The list starts with the most value at the price, and games without a price follow from the highest percentage.

How to read a period result

A draw is a common period result: roughly one 1st period in three ends level. That is why the model treats a draw like any other pick, not as an exception.

The fair price is 100 divided by the percentage; when the market's price is higher, the pick has value. Value shows up more often on the weaker team, because the period model rates the strength gap more cautiously than the market: it is a disagreement with the market, not a proven edge.

How the periods differ

The 1st period result depends most on the teams' strength and the goals projection. In the 2nd and 3rd periods the draw rate is similar in most games, and in the 3rd the trailing team pulls its goalie, so an empty-net goal decides its result more often.

The game analysis shows every period with its goals projection, both teams' strong and weak periods, the head-to-head meetings and the period with the most goals.

Frequently asked questions

Where does a period's percentage come from?: From that period's goal model: both teams' expected goals in that part of the game give a distribution of results, and we read the draw from a table fitted to how often draws actually happened. We combine that percentage with the market's price without the margin.
Does overtime count towards the 3rd period?: No. Each period settles only on the goals scored in it, without overtime or the shootout.
How often does a period end in a draw?: In our data from two seasons, about 34% of 1st periods ended level, 31% of 2nd periods and 28% of 3rd periods.
What does Premium unlock?: Without an account you see the day's first pick with the full analysis, and with a free account three picks a day for the 1st period, for today. Premium means all games on every day, the 2nd and 3rd periods, the market's prices for every period and up to 30 games of history. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.