What is a back-to-back?

A team's second game on consecutive days. The module marks it B2B next to the team and shows whether the opponent is rested at the time.

How is the schedule effect worked out?

From almost 19,500 games over two seasons, in which we compared the result after 60 minutes with what both teams' form implied. The effect shifts the expected goals in the model, and a pick appears when the model with the schedule gives a side more than the market does.

Does the schedule affect the number of goals?

Not in our data: fatigue changed the result after 60 minutes, while the total stayed the same. That is why the pick is on the 60-minute handicap.

What does Premium unlock?

Without an account you see the day's first pick with the full analysis, and with a free account three picks a day, for today. Premium means all games on every day, the filter for games with an effect or a pick, both teams' results by days of rest and the odds on both sides of the handicap. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.

Schedule & fatigue

Hockey

Who is rested, who plays a second night in a row, and what it changes.

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What the Schedule & Fatigue module shows

For every hockey game of the day, both teams' schedule: days since the last game, a second game on consecutive days (a back-to-back), the number of games in the last 7 and 14 days, the road trip and a game in another competition in the last four days.

We add the schedule's measured effect to the goal model's projection and set it against the market's 60-minute handicap. The pick is the side the schedule helps, when the model with the schedule gives it more than the market's line.

What a back-to-back costs

We measured it on almost 19,500 games from two seasons. A team playing its second game on consecutive days against a rested opponent was about 0.3 goals worse on goal difference after 60 minutes on average: home teams 0.29, away teams 0.33. The effect showed in the NHL, the AHL and the European leagues.

The rested opponent won in regulation in 53% of such games, against 48% from form alone. Fatigue did not affect the total, which is why the module gives a handicap pick, not a goals pick.

What the schedule does not measure

We show a game in another competition, such as the Champions Hockey League, but do not add it: there are too few such games to measure their effect. We do not count travel or absences either.

The pick settles after 60 minutes. We combine the percentage with the market's price without the margin, as in the Handicaps module, so it is a statistic, not a certainty.

Frequently asked questions

What is a back-to-back?: A team's second game on consecutive days. The module marks it B2B next to the team and shows whether the opponent is rested at the time.
How is the schedule effect worked out?: From almost 19,500 games over two seasons, in which we compared the result after 60 minutes with what both teams' form implied. The effect shifts the expected goals in the model, and a pick appears when the model with the schedule gives a side more than the market does.
Does the schedule affect the number of goals?: Not in our data: fatigue changed the result after 60 minutes, while the total stayed the same. That is why the pick is on the 60-minute handicap.
What does Premium unlock?: Without an account you see the day's first pick with the full analysis, and with a free account three picks a day, for today. Premium means all games on every day, the filter for games with an effect or a pick, both teams' results by days of rest and the odds on both sides of the handicap. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.