What is a handicap pick based on?

On the goal model: both teams' expected goals from their recent games give a distribution of results, from which we work out how often each side covers the line. We combine that percentage with the market's price without the margin, and the pick is the side the price pays the most for.

How does the 60-minute handicap differ from the puck line?

The 60-minute handicap settles after three periods, without overtime or the shootout. The puck line covers the whole game with overtime and the shootout winner's goal, as North American bookmakers settle it.

What does the value next to a pick mean?

How much higher the market's price is than the fair price from our percentage. It is a gap in pricing, not a gain.

What does Premium unlock?

Without an account you see the day's first pick with the full analysis, and with a free account three picks a day, for today and for 60 minutes. Premium means all games on every day, the puck line and the 1st period, the favourite and underdog filter, up to 30 games of history and the market's full prices. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.

Handicaps

Hockey

The handicap side the odds pay most for, by our model.

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What the Handicaps module shows

For every hockey game of the day the goal model works out how often each side covers the handicap line: over 60 minutes, on the puck line with overtime and in the 1st period. The pick is the side whose price at that line pays the most against our model.

The list starts with the most value at the market's price. Without a price the model decides, and without the model, the record of covering the line in both teams' recent games. The big number next to the pick is how often the line was covered in both teams' games.

How to read a hockey handicap

A -1.5 handicap means the favourite must win by at least two goals, while +1.5 wins if the underdog loses by one goal at most or wins. On a whole line such as -1, a win by exactly one goal returns the stake, and a quarter line such as -0.75 settles half on each of the neighbouring lines.

The goal difference against the line is not enough on its own: a -1.5 favourite wins by less than two goals on average. That is why we work out the whole distribution of results from the goal model and combine the percentage with the market's price without the margin. It is a statistic, not a certainty.

What affects the handicap

Many hockey games are decided by one goal, and the team trailing late pulls its goalie. An empty-net goal often turns a one-goal win into a two-goal win, which matters for the -1.5 line.

The 60-minute handicap and the puck line with overtime are different bets: a draw is possible after 60 minutes, while the game with overtime always has a winner. That is why we count each part separately, with its own line.

Frequently asked questions

What is a handicap pick based on?: On the goal model: both teams' expected goals from their recent games give a distribution of results, from which we work out how often each side covers the line. We combine that percentage with the market's price without the margin, and the pick is the side the price pays the most for.
How does the 60-minute handicap differ from the puck line?: The 60-minute handicap settles after three periods, without overtime or the shootout. The puck line covers the whole game with overtime and the shootout winner's goal, as North American bookmakers settle it.
What does the value next to a pick mean?: How much higher the market's price is than the fair price from our percentage. It is a gap in pricing, not a gain.
What does Premium unlock?: Without an account you see the day's first pick with the full analysis, and with a free account three picks a day, for today and for 60 minutes. Premium means all games on every day, the puck line and the 1st period, the favourite and underdog filter, up to 30 games of history and the market's full prices. All in one Premium together with football and basketball.