Cards — how often over 4.5 landed

We count one thing: whether the match we showed finished with more than 4.5 cards. It is the same figure we print next to every pick, over the last 30 days.

This table is reconstructed, not kept as we go. We do not store the list of picks for a given day, so it is recomputed with the same model and the same window of history, which ends before the match date — no result can travel backwards into the selection. Statistics for older matches keep arriving for up to a month, so a reconstruction may rest on a fuller history than was available at the time. That history is still entirely pre-match, but it is not the same thing as a record kept on the day.

23 picks are left ungraded because some leagues do not report match statistics. They stay in the table but are excluded from the hit rate — dropping them would look like hiding losses.

A hit rate is not a profit. We publish no odds or yield here, because bookmakers price high-volume matches accordingly and accuracy alone does not decide whether the bet makes money.