Late Goals

For every match of the day, the table looks at how often the two teams' recent matches had a goal in the last fifteen minutes of a half: between the 31st and 45th minute, and between the 76th and 90th minute. Stoppage time counts towards the half it belongs to, so a goal in the 45+2nd minute is a first-half late goal.

Matches are ranked by that hit rate, pooled over both teams' samples, with the average number of goals in the window as the tie-breaker. The top three open the list, and every match opens a breakdown of both teams and their recent results.

The minutes come from each match's goal timeline. A match only counts when its timeline adds up to the score after 90 minutes: if a goal is missing from the record, the match is left out rather than read as a match without a late goal. Extra-time goals and penalty shootouts are ignored.

Two counts are available. 'All goals' takes every goal in the window, scored or conceded, which matches markets on a goal in a time interval. 'Scored' takes only the goals the two teams scored themselves, which shows who does the late damage. The sample is either each team's recent matches or the head-to-head meetings.

The closing minutes of each half are among the busiest periods of a football match: tired legs, substitutions and teams chasing a result leave more space. Some teams make a habit of scoring or conceding late, and a habit shows up in the numbers over ten or twenty matches.

Use the table as a starting point, not a verdict. Check the sample size under each match, compare it with the other half, and see whether the goals came from the team itself or from its opponents.