How do Moneyflow gems differ from tips of the day?

All three lists come from the same Moneyflow board and differ by threshold: gems are an edge of at least 20% at odds up to 2.00 — rare and the widest gaps; tips of the day are 10%+ at odds 1.50–2.50 for a match within 8 hours; bankers are favourites with a 5%+ edge at odds 1.15–1.70. The statistical model on each pick is a second opinion, not a selection criterion. We keep separate records because they are three different strategies.

Why odds up to 2.00 and an edge as large as 20%?

At low odds a 20% edge means the bookmaker underprices the event by 8–10 percentage points — a lot, and rare, but such picks land often and build yield without long losing runs. Smaller edges go to the tips-of-the-day (10%+) and bankers (5%+) lists, and everything from 3% up is in the Moneyflow module.

Will I get the recorded price?

Often not. A pick appears on the page within two minutes of confirmation, and bookmakers correct such prices within minutes. This list is a sample and proof that the edge was real — Moneyflow module users get every signal immediately, including on Telegram, and that is where the current price is played.

How can I check that losing picks are not removed?

Every pick has a recording time, odds, result and stays in the archive permanently; the signal id is unique in the database, so it cannot be entered a second time at a better price. The data is also available through the public API (/picks-ledger/moneyflow, /picks-ledger/archive?list=moneyflow), so the yield can be recomputed independently.

Moneyflow gems — tips from odds movement

A free sample of the Moneyflow module: at most three picks a day — the first three events of the day a soft bookmaker prices at least 20% above the fair odds at Pinnacle (the book the professionals bet with), at odds up to 2.00. We record the odds and the minute the engine confirmed them, and leave it there: the price may have dropped since, nothing is recomputed or removed. After the match the pick is settled at the recorded odds.

Last board scan at 07:42 PM CET: 115 bookmaker lines, 0 in this list's band (20%+ over Pinnacle, odds 1.20–2.00), 0 newly recorded. The engine tracks odds in real time; this free list reads the board every 2 minutes.

Moneyflow gems — value from odds movement — today 2 of 3

A sample of the Moneyflow module: up to three picks a day where a soft bookmaker prices an event at least 20% above Pinnacle's fair odds, at odds up to 2.00. Odds and time as of recording — the price may have dropped since.

2 picks recorded as they appeared (02:32 PM–04:08 PM). Odds as recorded, result after the match.

#1England · Premier League 2 Division OneSep 11, 08:00 PM

Stoke City U21Wolves U21

Wolves U21 — draw no bet

at sts

Odds at 02:32 PM

1.85

Fair (Pinnacle): 65%
implied: 54%
Value: +20.3%

Pinnacle prices this event at 1.54 with the margin removed (≈65%); sts offers 1.85 — a +20.3% edge over the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 02:32 PM, 29.5 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. Pinnacle stake limit at the time: €150.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

Want live prices and today's opportunities? Try Moneyflow for free

#2Guatemala · Liga NacionalSep 11, 04:00 AM

XelajúCobán Imperial

Cobán Imperial (+2.0) Asian handicap

at betters

Odds at 04:08 PM

1.70

Fair (Pinnacle): 72%
implied: 59%
Value: +21.9%

Pinnacle prices this event at 1.40 with the margin removed (≈72%); betters offers 1.70 — a +21.9% edge over the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 04:08 PM, 11.9 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. Pinnacle stake limit at the time: €300.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

Want live prices and today's opportunities? Try Moneyflow for free

Record · last 90 days · since Sep 7

5 won · 1 lost · 1 void · 2 pending · under 20 graded — too few to judge

Hit rate: 83.3%
Yield: +53.3%
Profit (1-unit stakes): +3.20 u
tips: 5 / 1 / 1

This is three picks a day at a price from hours ago. The Moneyflow module shows every signal live — from 3% edge, with the sharp limit, price movement and a Telegram alert — while the price is still there.

Open Moneyflow

Recently settled gems

The last twelve picks with a result — odds as recorded, time of recording, outcome. The full record of the list is in the archive.

7 picks recorded as they appeared (04:02 PM–03:32 PM). Odds as recorded, result after the match.

#1World · UEFA Youth LeagueSep 10, 03:00 PM

Manchester United U19Sabah U19

Manchester United U19 (-1.5) Asian handicap

at fuksiarz

Odds at 11:12 PM

1.77

Fair (Pinnacle): 68%
implied: 56%
Value: +20.3%

Pinnacle prices this event at 1.47 with the margin removed (≈68%); fuksiarz offers 1.77 — a +20.3% edge over the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 11:12 PM, 39.8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since.

Won· 5:0Match stats: form, H2H, goals

Want live prices and today's opportunities? Try Moneyflow for free

#1Brazil · Copa do Brasil U20Sep 9, 08:00 PM

Criciuma U20Cascavel U20

Criciuma U20 (-0.25) Asian handicap

at lvbet

Odds at 08:14 AM

1.85

Fair (Pinnacle): 65%
implied: 54%
Value: +20.3%

Pinnacle prices this event at 1.54 with the margin removed (≈65%); lvbet offers 1.85 — a +20.3% edge over the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 08:14 AM, 11.8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. Pinnacle stake limit at the time: €125.

Won· 3:1Match stats: form, H2H, goals

Want live prices and today's opportunities? Try Moneyflow for free

#3Andorra · Super CupSep 9, 07:30 PM

Inter Club d'EscaldesAtlètic Club d'Escaldes

Inter Club d'Escaldes (+0.5) Asian handicap

at lvbet

Odds at 03:32 PM

1.80

Fair (Pinnacle): 71%
implied: 56%
Value: +28.3%

Pinnacle prices this event at 1.40 with the margin removed (≈71%); lvbet offers 1.80 — a +28.3% edge over the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 03:32 PM, 4 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since.

Won· 2:0Match stats: form, H2H, goals

Want live prices and today's opportunities? Try Moneyflow for free

#2Malawi · Super LeagueSep 9, 02:30 PM

Dedza DynamosMitundu Baptist

Over 2.0 goals

at betfan

Odds at 12:54 PM

2.00

Fair (Pinnacle): 60%
implied: 50%
Value: +20.2%

Pinnacle prices this event at 1.66 with the margin removed (≈60%); betfan offers 2.00 — a +20.2% edge over the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 12:54 PM, 1.6 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. Pinnacle stake limit at the time: €100.

Lost· 0:0Match stats: form, H2H, goals

Want live prices and today's opportunities? Try Moneyflow for free

#2Bolivia · Copa de la División ProfesionalSep 9, 12:00 AM

AuroraReal Potosí

Aurora (-1.0) Asian handicap

at etoto

Odds at 11:28 PM

2.00

Fair (Pinnacle): 61%
implied: 50%
Value: +22.6%

Pinnacle prices this event at 1.63 with the margin removed (≈61%); etoto offers 2.00 — a +22.6% edge over the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 11:28 PM, 0.5 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. Pinnacle stake limit at the time: €200.

Void· 1:0Match stats: form, H2H, goals

Want live prices and today's opportunities? Try Moneyflow for free

#2Malaysia · FA CupSep 8, 10:45 AM

Negeri SembilanKelantan City

Kelantan City (+2.0) Asian handicap

at lvbet

Odds at 10:54 PM

1.88

Fair (Pinnacle): 65%
implied: 53%
Value: +23%

Pinnacle prices this event at 1.53 with the margin removed (≈65%); lvbet offers 1.88 — a +23% edge over the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 10:54 PM, 11.8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. Pinnacle stake limit at the time: €125.

Won· 3:2Match stats: form, H2H, goals

Want live prices and today's opportunities? Try Moneyflow for free

#1Norway · 3. Division - Girone 2Sep 7, 06:00 PM

Molde IIAalesund II

Molde II — draw no bet

at sts

Odds at 04:02 PM

1.90

Fair (Pinnacle): 63%
implied: 53%
Value: +20%

Pinnacle prices this event at 1.58 with the margin removed (≈63%); sts offers 1.90 — a +20% edge over the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 04:02 PM, 2 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. Pinnacle stake limit at the time: €200.

Won· 3:2Match stats: form, H2H, goals

Want live prices and today's opportunities? Try Moneyflow for free

What an edge over Pinnacle means

Pinnacle takes the largest stakes in the world, does not close winning accounts and runs a 2–3% margin — which is why its price with the margin removed is the best available estimate of a probability. If Pinnacle prices an event at 1.60 (62.5%) and a soft bookmaker offers 1.95, the bookmaker is paying 22% more than the event is worth.

Such a gap opens when a bookmaker has not kept up with the market (injury, line-up, weather, a sudden flow of money) or is deliberately holding a promotional price. It rarely lasts more than a few dozen minutes. It is not a forecast of the result — it is a claim that the price is too high, which is why it can be verified without trusting any model.

How we pick the gems

A football signal makes the list when its edge over Pinnacle's fair price is at least 20%, the bookmaker's odds are between 1.20 and 2.00, the match starts in 30 minutes to 40 hours, and Pinnacle's limit on that line does not suggest a pricing error. Markets: result, goals, team goals, Asian handicap — full match or a half.

Before a pick is recorded the engine asks the bookmaker once more for exactly that line. We record the confirmed odds and the time. The match is paired with the results database by team names and kickoff — if the pairing is not certain, the pick is not taken. One pick per match, at most three a day: the first three to clear the bar, not a selection of the best.

How to play the gems

Fast or not at all: a price 20% off Pinnacle usually normalises within the hour. The recording time on the card tells you how long ago that was. If the odds have already dropped, do not take the lower price — the edge that existed does not carry over to the new odds.

Flat stakes. Judge the list by its yield and by whether the closing odds ended up below the recorded ones — that is the test of whether the edge was real, and the number that decides profit in the long run.

Three engines, one ledger

Every free list on this page is a sample of one engine — Moneyflow — with the statistical model's second opinion on each pick. Each engine has a public record and its own product, where you get the whole thing instead of a sample.

Moneyflow tips

The engine compares licensed bookmakers' odds with Pinnacle's fair price in real time and shows where a bookmaker is slow or generous. Every free list comes from here — tips of the day (10%+ at 1.50–2.50), bankers (5%+ on favourites) and gems (20%+) — three a day each, at the price of the minute of recording. In the module you see every signal from 3% up, with the sharp limit, price movement and Telegram alerts.

7 settled · yield +53.3% · +3.20 u

Moneyflow module

Statistical tips

The model counts how often an event occurred in both teams' last 25 matches and their H2H, and compares that with the price. On the free lists it is the second opinion on every Moneyflow pick — two independent sources next to the bookmaker's price. In the Value Bets module you see its full list: dozens to a hundred-plus signals a day across 30+ markets.

A second opinion on every pick, without a record of its own: it is a statistic of the event, not a betting strategy — everyone plays it differently.

Value Bets module Free tips of the day

Insider

The hand-kept ledger of the PredictStats team's own tips: every tip published before the match with its odds, settled at those odds, since September 2025. The only one of the three engines with a human behind the selection — and the only history that cannot be recomputed backwards, because it was published as it went.

407 settled · yield +22.6% · +367.91 u

See the Insider ledger

Frequently asked questions

How do Moneyflow gems differ from tips of the day?: All three lists come from the same Moneyflow board and differ by threshold: gems are an edge of at least 20% at odds up to 2.00 — rare and the widest gaps; tips of the day are 10%+ at odds 1.50–2.50 for a match within 8 hours; bankers are favourites with a 5%+ edge at odds 1.15–1.70. The statistical model on each pick is a second opinion, not a selection criterion. We keep separate records because they are three different strategies.
Why odds up to 2.00 and an edge as large as 20%?: At low odds a 20% edge means the bookmaker underprices the event by 8–10 percentage points — a lot, and rare, but such picks land often and build yield without long losing runs. Smaller edges go to the tips-of-the-day (10%+) and bankers (5%+) lists, and everything from 3% up is in the Moneyflow module.
Will I get the recorded price?: Often not. A pick appears on the page within two minutes of confirmation, and bookmakers correct such prices within minutes. This list is a sample and proof that the edge was real — Moneyflow module users get every signal immediately, including on Telegram, and that is where the current price is played.
How can I check that losing picks are not removed?: Every pick has a recording time, odds, result and stays in the archive permanently; the signal id is unique in the database, so it cannot be entered a second time at a better price. The data is also available through the public API (/picks-ledger/moneyflow, /picks-ledger/archive?list=moneyflow), so the yield can be recomputed independently.