How to use Moneyflow: value bets, edge and betting tax step by step

Moneyflow is a board that compares, in real time, the odds at licensed bookmakers with how the sharp market prices the same event — Pinnacle, the bookmaker that takes large stakes from professional bettors and whose odds sit closest to the true probability. When a bookmaker pays more than that valuation says it should, a signal appears on the board with the edge worked out.

The name comes from what we track: the flow of money. When a big stake lands at the sharp book, its odds drop within seconds. A local bookmaker reacts late — sometimes minutes, sometimes hours — and in that window it still pays the "old" price. Moneyflow catches exactly that window and tells you: these odds at this bookmaker are X% too high.

Every price is a hidden probability. Odds of 2.00 say "this has a 50% chance" (1 / 2.00 = 0.50). The bookmaker adds a margin on top, so the odds on all outcomes of a match add up to more than 100% — typically 104–110% at local bookmakers. That excess is its earnings and your cost.

Step 1: fair odds, i.e. the probability without the margin

Take the "both teams to score" market with sharp odds of 1.83 (yes) and 2.05 (no). Convert to chances: 1/1.83 = 54.6% and 1/2.05 = 48.8%. The sum is 103.4% — that 3.4% is the margin. Remove it proportionally and "yes" has 52.8%, so the fair odds are 1 / 0.528 = 1.89. That is the price at which the bet would be perfectly neutral: neither you nor the bookmaker has an edge.

chance = 1 / odds · · · margin = Σ chances − 100% · · · fair odds = 1 / (chance / Σ chances)

Step 2: value, i.e. odds above fair

If a bookmaker offers 2.10 on the same "yes", it pays as if the chance were 47.6% — while it is really closer to 52.8%. The gap between what it pays and what it should pay is value. We express it as a percentage of the odds:

edge = bookmaker odds / fair odds − 1 = 2.10 / 1.89 − 1 = +11.1%

Step 3: why a single bet can lose and a series can win

A bet with a 52.8% chance loses 47 times in 100. That is normal and does not invalidate the value. What counts is the expected value: from 100 € staked at 2.10 you get back 0.529 × 210 = 111.1 € on average, i.e. +11.1 € per 100 €. After 200 such bets the variance of single results fades and the total approaches the sum of the edges. That is why value is played in series, at a flat stake, without chasing losses.

Edge is the one number Moneyflow computes for every signal, shown in the green pill on the card and in the first column of the table. The higher it is, the more the bookmaker overpays. The board splits it into tiers so it can be read without arithmetic:

Next to the pill the card shows three dots (signal strength) and a verbal label. In the table the same edge sits in the Edge column, and sorting by Edge puts the largest on top.

Edge before and after tax

By default the board computes edge from the full odds. The Value after tax switch recalculates it the way it appears on a slip at a bookmaker that taxes the stake — Poland's 12% is the built-in case — with the payout reduced accordingly: edge = odds × 0.88 / fair − 1. A +9.4% signal before tax becomes 1.094 × 0.88 − 1 = −3.7% after it. Details in the tax section; for now remember: same signal, different yardstick. If your bookmaker does not tax the stake, leave the switch off.

The table and the pick details show three numbers no ordinary bookmaker displays. Each answers a different question.

The limit is not your account limit

This is the most common mix-up. The Limit in Moneyflow says how much money the sharp market is willing to take on a line. It has nothing to do with how much your bookmaker lets you stake. Read it like this:

• €2,000 and above — a liquid market (top leagues, main markets). The fair odds are reliable, the edge usually smaller but "real".
• €500 – 2,000 — a typical second-tier European league or a side market. Good territory for value, because local bookmakers update these lines more slowly.
• up to €500 — the low liquidity flag (yellow shield). One larger stake moves the sharp price, so the edge may be "on paper". Stake less, or filter these markets out with the Limit slider.

When the limit on a line drops, someone has bet that line. Hence board notes like "someone staked ~€1,500" — not an estimate from form, but a reading of the limit's movement. The Manipulation sort shows thin markets (limit up to €50) where the sharp price is moving: rare, but very clear signals.

On opening /moneyflow you see a header with counters and three buttons. Below it the filter panel and the list of signals — as a table (the default on desktop) or as cards (handier on a phone).

1. 1Telegram notifications — connect your Telegram here and choose which filters should push signals to your phone (see "Custom filters").
2. 2How does it work? — a short explanation of the mechanism and the legend of badges (NEW, confirmed, low liquidity, better line).
3. 3How to use — this guide.

Four counters: Active opportunities (how many signals pass your filters), Matches, Best edge on the list and New now — signals from the last 5 minutes. Clicking "New now" sorts the list freshest first.

Views: Live, Archive, Favorites, Hidden

1. 1Archive — a search of historical signals with a CLV column (did the signal's odds beat the closing price). This is where you check whether your filters catch good prices.
2. 2Favorites — signals you starred; your private record of picks you played or want to follow.
3. 3Hidden — events hidden with the eye icon. Hiding does not delete a signal, it just clears your list.

The card shows everything you need for a decision, in this order:

1. 1Edge — in percent; the colour and dots show the tier (section "Edge").
2. 2Pick — exactly what to bet, with the line (e.g. "Under 2.5 goals", "Handicap −1.5"). Above it the match and league, on the left the kickoff time.
3. 3Badges: NEW (a signal from the last 5 minutes), Confirmed at 2 bookmakers (the same edge at two or more — a stronger signal), Low liquidity, High odds, Better line.
4. 4Odds at the bookmaker that overpays. The struck-through number next to it is the previous reading — a down arrow means the price is already falling and the value is about to vanish.
5. 5The star saves to Favorites, the eye hides the event (on a phone both sit in the details).
6. 6Details — the full analysis: why it is worth it, sharp odds, fair odds, limit, the odds over time, the same line at other bookmakers.

The table: the same data, denser

On desktop the table adds Fair, Sharp and Limit as separate columns, so one glance tells you whether the edge stands on a liquid market. A highlighted row is a new signal.

1. 1Edge — how far the bookmaker’s odds sit above fair. Sort by it, but always check the limit too (column 5).
2. 2Odds at the local bookmaker — the price you actually bet.
3. 3Fair odds — the sharp price with the margin removed. Edge is measured against it and the stake depends on it.
4. 4Sharp odds — the price the sharp book actually trades at, margin still included. That is why it is always below fair.
5. 5The sharp limit — how much the sharp book accepts on this event. Vejle U19: +11.7% edge, but a limit of only €250 — a thin market, a less verified price, stake less. Real Sociedad: only +3.2%, but a €3,000 limit — a price confirmed by big money.

The filter panel is one surface: quick controls on top and, once you expand Filters, sliders and switches. Settings are saved in the browser and in the URL, so you set them once.

The sliders set one threshold for the whole board. Custom filters (up to 8) let you keep a different threshold per bookmaker and situation — say, "Superbet tax-free from 4% after tax" and separately "Accas from 3% before tax at every bookmaker". Active filters add up: a signal makes the list if it matches any of them, and the board sliders are then switched off (dimmed).

1. 1Name — descriptive, because you will see it as a chip on the board and in the Telegram message.
2. 2The bookmakers this threshold applies to. One filter can cover several.
3. 3Minimum edge. Below it, optionally, an odds range, sharp limit, sports, markets and time to kickoff — the same controls as on the board, saved in the rule.
4. 4Count edge after tax — the threshold from point 3 is computed from odds × 0.88. The form tells you how much raw edge that is: 4% after tax is about 18.2% before.
5. 5Filter the list — the filter decides what you see on the board.
6. 6Send to Telegram — new signals matching the filter go to your phone. A filter can be Telegram-only (the list shows everything, the phone gets the selection).
7. 7Save. Changes apply immediately, in notifications too.

Telegram itself is connected with the Telegram notifications button in the header: link your account to the bot (a few seconds), turn on the master switch and tick which filters should send. You can also connect a separate Moneyflow bot so these signals arrive in their own chat.

Clicking a card or a row opens the details. The key part is Why is this worth it? — it translates the edge into two percentages anyone understands.

1. 1Bookmaker's pricing vs Real chance: the bookmaker pays 2.10 as if the chance were 48%; the market says 52%. Those 4 percentage points are your edge expressed in chances. With "Value after tax" on, the bookmaker's pricing is already after the 12%.
2. 2Market data: sharp odds, fair odds, limit — the three numbers from the section above. Under them, the time of the last odds reading.
3. 3Save to My Predictions — the signal goes into your record (Favorites) with the odds and time of saving, so after the match you can see whether you beat the closing price.

Further down in the details: the odds and limit chart (is the value growing or already vanishing), This line at other bookmakers (someone may pay even more) and Other opportunities in this match. The button with the bookmaker's name opens the match directly at that bookmaker.

Most bookmakers on the Moneyflow board are licensed in Poland, where 12% of every stake goes to the state as gaming tax. Stake 100 — 88 are in play, and the win is computed from 88. That is the single largest cost of a bettor there, and the reason value that looks good "on paper" can be negative on the slip. The same arithmetic applies to any stake tax: replace 0.88 with 1 − your rate. Where the stake is not taxed — the UK, Spain, Italy and most of Europe for the bettor — the multiplier is 1.00 and this whole section reduces to "every positive edge is profit".

no tax: EV = odds × p − 1 · · · with tax: EV = odds × 0.88 × p − 1 · · · where p = 1 / fair odds

A bet is neutral (EV = 0) when odds × 0.88 = fair odds, i.e. when odds / fair = 1 / 0.88 = 1.136. In other words:

Hence the conversion in the filter form: to have 5% after tax, a signal needs 1.05 / 0.88 − 1 = 19.3% before tax. Such signals exist, but they are rare and short-lived.

Calculator: work out your bet

Enter the bookmaker odds and the fair odds from the Moneyflow table, switch the tax on or off, add a boost — you will see the edge, the expected result from 100 € and the threshold that covers the tax.

Three ways around the threshold

1. Tax-free play. Some Polish bookmakers periodically cover the tax for the bettor (a "tax-free" promotion, usually with a minimum price or on selected markets) — and in most other countries the stake is never taxed. Then the multiplier is back at 1.00 and every positive edge is profit. This is the best environment for Moneyflow: a "tax-free" custom filter with a 2–3% threshold for that bookmaker.
2. Accumulator boosts. A percentage bonus on the odds of a slip with several selections (e.g. +10% at 3 selections, +20% at 5). The edges of the selections multiply, the boost comes on top, and any tax is paid once. Details below.
3. High edge on a single. A custom filter with a 14% threshold (or "after tax" 1%+) plus the sound alert or Telegram. Such signals are rare, but each of them is positive even after the tax — with no boost and no slip to build.

On an accumulator the edges of the individual selections multiply (as long as they are independent). Three selections at +5% each give 1.05 × 1.05 × 1.05 = +15.8% on the combined odds. The bookmaker adds a boost on top, and a 12% stake tax is paid on one stake, not three.

EV(acca) = (1 + e₁)(1 + e₂)(1 + e₃) × (1 + boost) × 0.88 − 1

The conclusion is simple: with a stake tax, singles only pay from ~14% edge, while a boosted accumulator pays from 3–5% per selection. Without a stake tax the single is already positive at +5% (row one, "no boost", becomes +5.0%), and the boost is pure upside. Either way it makes sense to keep a separate "Acca boost" rule in custom filters with a low threshold and a wide set of bookmakers — and build 3–4-selection slips from it.

Value gives an edge in the long run, but the short run is noise. Stake management serves one purpose: you have to reach the long run with a bankroll.

Bankroll and flat stakes

Set aside an amount whose loss would change nothing in your life — that is the bankroll. A flat stake is a fixed percentage of it on every bet: 1–2% on singles, 0.5–1% on accas. At 2%, a run of seven losses in a row (at odds of 2.00 it happens regularly) costs 14% of the bankroll, not all of it.

Kelly: a stake from the fair odds

The Kelly criterion says what fraction of the bankroll maximises growth when you know the true probability — and the fair odds from Moneyflow are the best available approximation of it:

f = (b × p − (1 − p)) / b · · · b = odds − 1, p = 1 / fair odds

For odds of 2.10 and fair 1.90: p = 52.6%, b = 1.10, f = (0.579 − 0.474) / 1.10 = 9.6% of the bankroll. Full Kelly assumes fair is exact — it is not, so people play ¼ Kelly: here about 2.4%. With a stake tax, plug in odds × 0.88 instead of the odds; for most signals it comes out zero or negative, which is precisely the message "do not play this single with the tax".

Rules that protect the bankroll

• Low liquidity → half stake. An edge on a market with a €250 limit is less certain than the same edge at €3,000.
• High odds → smaller stake. Odds of 6.00 with +10% land once in six. A ¼ Kelly stake accounts for this by itself.
• Do not chase losses. After a loss the stake stays the same. Changing the stake after a result is the fastest way to lose the edge.
• Do not chase the price. If the bookmaker's odds have already dropped below the signal's, the edge has shrunk — check in the details whether it is still positive.
• Measure CLV, not results. In the Archive the CLV column tells you whether your odds beat the closing price. Positive CLV over a series is proof that your filters catch good prices — even when the month closed in the red.
• Log every bet. The star in Moneyflow or your own sheet: date, odds, fair, stake, result. Without it you cannot tell bad luck from bad filters.

What is a value bet?

A value bet is a bet where the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the real probability of the event justifies. If the fair odds (margin removed) are 1.90 and a bookmaker pays 2.10, you have value: 2.10 / 1.90 − 1 = 10.5% edge. Any single such bet can lose; over a long run of bets with a positive edge the result converges on that edge.

What is edge in Moneyflow?

Edge is the percentage by which a bookmaker’s odds exceed the fair odds derived from the sharp market (Pinnacle) with the margin removed: edge = bookmaker odds / fair odds − 1. On the Moneyflow board +1% is a slight edge, +3% a very good opportunity and +8% or more an excellent one.

How much edge do you need to break even with a 12% stake tax?

A 12% tax on the stake means that of 100 units only 88 are in play. A bet is neutral when odds × 0.88 equals the fair odds, i.e. at an edge of 1 / 0.88 − 1 = 13.6%. So a single at a bookmaker with that tax only pays from roughly 14% edge; without a stake tax, or with a boost, the threshold drops — with no tax at all, any positive edge is profit.

What does "Limit" mean in Moneyflow?

The limit is the maximum stake the sharp bookmaker accepts on that line — a measure of market liquidity, not a limit on your account. A high limit (several thousand euro) means a price the market is sure of; a limit up to €500 gets the "low liquidity" flag, where the price is easier to distort and a smaller stake is wise.

Is Moneyflow sure betting or arbitrage?

No. A sure bet backs both sides of an event at two bookmakers and locks in a risk-free profit. Moneyflow shows one-sided bets with a positive edge: a single bet can lose, and the profit comes over a series because the odds were higher than they should have been.

How often do the signals update?

The engine compares odds continuously and the board refreshes itself every few seconds. Signals from the last 5 minutes carry the NEW badge and a highlighted row; with the sound alert on, every new pick makes a sound, and custom filters can push them to Telegram.