World Cup semi-finalists match top four in FIFA rankings

The latest World Cup has delivered an unusual statistical quirk: the four semi-finalists were also the top four teams in the FIFA rankings at the start of the tournament. According to the historical record of the men’s rankings era, that had not happened before.

A first in the men’s rankings era

FIFA’s men’s world rankings have only been in place since 1993, which means they cover the last nine World Cups. Across the previous eight editions in that period, no more than two of the pre-tournament top four had reached the semi-finals in the same competition.

That makes this year’s line-up stand out. Although the order shifted during the tournament because the rankings were updated after every match, the same four teams remained in place going into the semi-finals as had been there at the start.

The source material notes that the leading quartet were helped by FIFA’s seeding system, but also had to justify that status on the pitch. Spain beat Portugal and Belgium, who were ranked fifth and ninth respectively, while France overcame seventh-ranked Morocco. England’s strongest knockout win by ranking came against Mexico, who were 14th, and Argentina’s toughest opponent was Switzerland in 19th.

How this compares with previous World Cups

In rankings terms, this is as strong a men’s semi-final line-up as possible. The four teams had a combined FIFA ranking of 10, the lowest total available without tied positions.

The previous best in the men’s game came in 2014, when the semi-finalists had a combined ranking of 25. At the other end of the scale, the weakest semi-final line-up by this measure came in 2002, with a combined ranking of 75.

That 2002 tournament was notable for how badly the top-ranked sides fared. Only one of the top four made it out of the group stage. France and Argentina were eliminated early, while Colombia had not qualified at all despite being highly ranked after winning the 2001 Copa América. Brazil was the exception and went on to win the tournament.

Four years later came another outlier: 2006 remains the only men’s World Cup in the rankings era in which none of the top four reached the semi-finals. The top four before that tournament were Brazil, Czech Republic, Netherlands and Mexico.

The women’s game tells a slightly different story

The women’s rankings were introduced after the 1999 World Cup, so the sample size is smaller, covering the last five tournaments. Even so, the pattern is clearer: women’s World Cups have generally been dominated by highly ranked teams.

No women’s World Cup semi-finalist in that period has come from outside the top 10. The weakest semi-final line-up by ranking produced a combined total of 23, which came in 2023.

There have also been near-matches to the current men’s feat. In both 2007 and 2015, three of the top four reached the women’s semi-finals. The 2015 tournament produced a combined ranking of 13, with France, ranked third, and Sweden, ranked fifth, the notable absentees from the world’s top six.

Rankings are useful, but not perfect

The broader point is that rankings can offer context without telling the whole story. The source rightly notes that the early versions were relatively crude, which helps explain some oddities from the past, including France being ranked 18th and the Netherlands 25th going into the 1998 semi-finals.

Even with those caveats, this year’s men’s semi-final line-up remains significant. In pure ranking terms, it is unprecedented in the modern era: the four highest-ranked teams all survived to the last four, something the previous eight World Cups in the men’s rankings era had never produced.