Federico Arnaboldi vs Juan Pablo Varillas: estimated money moves

Federico Arnaboldi – Juan Pablo Varillas

ATP Challenger Como - R16Wed, Sep 2, 05:51 PM · 10d ago

€13.2Kwent on this matchestimate≈ 19.1× max bet

Over half went on the winner / handicap, 64% of it on Federico Arnaboldi. Most of the money came in Sep 1 10:00 PM–11:00 PM. The limit grew from €100.0 to €1.3K. Last move 10d ago.

When the money came inbar = 1 h

How it works

The sharp book does not publish volume. All we see are its odds and limits — every accepted bet moves the line against the side it took, by an amount that depends on the limit. From those moves we estimate how much had to be staked to cause them. Amounts are in euro and approximate; the order of matches, the split per side and the timing are the reliable parts.

Show the full method

Source: the full history of every match's odds and limits up to kickoff. We never see bet slips — only the prices the bookmaker shows everyone.
How far a move goes depends on the limit. The same bet shifts a low-limit niche league a lot and barely nudges the Champions League. That is why niche amounts are smaller — but every bet there shows.
The winner (1X2) and the handicap are shown as one market — the “side” of the match. The bookmaker prices them together, so the prices cannot tell whether money went on 1X2 or on the handicap. Over/Under is counted separately.
We filter out noise: small back-and-forth price corrections the bookmaker makes on its own do not count as money.
Sudden reprices after news (line-ups, injuries, walkovers) are shown on the timeline but not counted in the amounts — they are not bets.
A limit change without a price move is the bookmaker's schedule, not money. We count only until kickoff.

Amounts are indicative. Trust the order of matches, the side the money is on and the timing of the inflow more than the amount itself.