Tips from September 28, 2026

Picks recorded on September 28, 2026: tips of the day, bankers and gems from odds movement, recorded as they appeared — each with the odds as recorded and the result.

Tips of the day, with odds

Three picks a day from odds movement: events a licensed bookmaker prices at least 10% above the sharp bookmaker's fair odds, at odds 1.50–2.50, for a match kicking off within the next 8 hours. Slots open at 08:00, 12:00 and 15:00 (Warsaw) — each takes the highest deviation on the board at that moment, recorded with the price and the minute — and we settle each at the recorded odds after the match. Every pick carries a second opinion: our statistical model's probability.

3 picks recorded as they appeared (11:06 AM–03:48 PM). Odds as recorded, result after the match.

#1Norway · 3. Division - Girone 407:00 PM

Haugesund IIHinna

Haugesund II (-1.5) Asian handicap

at sts

Odds at 11:06 AM

2.45

Fair (sharp): 48%
implied: 41%
Value: +17%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 2.10 with the margin removed (≈48%); sts offers 2.45 — a +17% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 11:06 AM, 7.9 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €100.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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#2Serbia · Prva Liga06:00 PM

OFK Bor 1919Metalac GM

Metalac GM — draw no bet

at superbet

Odds at 12:32 PM

2.07

Fair (sharp): 56%
implied: 48%
Value: +15.7%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.79 with the margin removed (≈56%); superbet offers 2.07 — a +15.7% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 12:32 PM, 5.5 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €100.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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#3Qatar · QSL Cup05:00 PM

Al KharaitiyatAl Wakrah

Al Kharaitiyat — draw no bet

at sts

Odds at 03:48 PM

2.25

Fair (sharp): 53%
implied: 44%
Value: +19.1%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.89 with the margin removed (≈53%); sts offers 2.25 — a +19.1% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 03:48 PM, 1.2 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €300.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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Record · last 90 days · since Sep 7

24 won · 31 lost · 7 void · 2 pending

Hit rate: 43.6%
Yield: -3.7%
Profit (1-unit stakes): -2.06 u
tips: 24 / 31 / 7

These are three of dozens of signals a day, at a price from hours ago. The Moneyflow module shows all of them live — from 3% deviation, with the sharp limit, price movement and a Telegram alert — while the price is still there.

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Today's bankers

Three favourites a day the bookmaker underrates: The sharp bookmaker gives the event at least 70%, and a licensed bookmaker pays at least 5% more than the fair price, at odds 1.15–1.70. A high hit rate by design and a deviation in the price — both show in the record. Every pick carries our statistical model's second opinion.

3 picks recorded as they appeared (12:52 AM–08:36 AM). Odds as recorded, result after the match.

#1Jamaica · Premier League03:00 AM

WaterhouseTreasure Beach

Treasure Beach (+1.0) Asian handicap

at betters

Odds at 12:52 AM

1.42

Fair (sharp): 74%
implied: 70%
Value: +5.7%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.34 with the margin removed (≈74%); betters offers 1.42 — a +5.7% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 12:52 AM, 2.1 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €300.

Lost· 2:0Match stats: form, H2H, goals

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#2Argentina · Primera C08:00 PM

Centro EspañolDefensores de Cambaceres

Defensores de Cambaceres (+1.0) Asian handicap

at admiralbet

Odds at 08:12 AM

1.58

Fair (sharp): 71%
implied: 63%
Value: +8.9%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.41 with the margin removed (≈71%); admiralbet offers 1.58 — a +8.9% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 08:12 AM, 11.8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €100.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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#3Mexico · Primera Premier04:05 AM

Jaguares de ChiapasRacing de Veracruz

Racing de Veracruz — draw no bet

at tipicode

Odds at 08:36 AM

1.55

Fair (sharp): 70%
implied: 65%
Value: +8.7%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.43 with the margin removed (≈70%); tipicode offers 1.55 — a +8.7% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 08:36 AM, 19.5 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €100.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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Day's balance: -1.00 u (0 won · 1 lost · 2 pending)

Record · last 90 days · since Sep 7

40 won · 15 lost · 8 void · 2 pending

Hit rate: 72.7%
Yield: +3.7%
Profit (1-unit stakes): +2.04 u
tips: 40 / 15 / 8

Moneyflow gems — value from odds movement

A sample of the Moneyflow module: up to three picks a day where a soft bookmaker prices an event at least 20% above the sharp bookmaker's fair odds, at odds up to 2.00. Odds and time as of recording — the price may have dropped since.

One pick, recorded at 03:46 PM. Odds as of recording, result after the match.

#1Japan · J-League Cup12:00 PM

Ehime FCFC Tokyo

Ehime FC (+1.75) Asian handicap

at lvbet

Odds at 03:46 PM

2.00

Fair (sharp): 62%
implied: 50%
Value: +23.7%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.62 with the margin removed (≈62%); lvbet offers 2.00 — a +23.7% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 03:46 PM, 20.2 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €300.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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Record · last 90 days · since Sep 7

26 won · 18 lost · 6 void

Hit rate: 59.1%
Yield: +11.7%
Profit (1-unit stakes): +5.15 u
tips: 26 / 18 / 6