Goals Analysis

For every match today we compute the expected total goals from both teams' recent matches — goals scored and conceded, home and away separately — plus the share of matches that went over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals and in which both teams scored (BTTS). The H2H and half-time totals sit alongside.

The list is sorted by expected total, so the matches "for goals" sit at the top and the ones the model expects to be dull at the bottom. Both ends are useful: under 2.5 between two defensive sides is as good a bet as an over in an open derby.

Do not bet the average alone. A match averaging 3.1 goals with 80% of games over 2.5 is a different thing from the same average built from a few 5-1s and many 1-0s — which is why the over-rate sits next to the average. Check that both teams score, too: an average driven by one attack is a "home team over 1.5" rather than a match over.

Compare the model's percentage with the price. Odds of 1.80 on over 2.5 are about 56% as priced by the bookmaker; if our rate is 68% there is a deviation. If it is 55% there is none, however goal-friendly the match looks. Value comes from the gap, not from a high number.

Mostly the tempo of both sides and whether either needs the result. High-pressing teams produce goals at both ends, while relegation battles late in the season end 0-0 or 1-0 surprisingly often. A striker out of form or a missing first-choice centre-back shifts the expected total by half a goal.

The numbers cover the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties do not count towards goal markets. Weather matters less than people think — wind and rain lower the quality of play but not always the goal count, because defensive errors go up.