Shots Analysis
ShotsFind matches with the most/least shots based on historical data
What the shots analysis shows
For every match we compute the expected number of shots — total, on target and off target — from both teams' recent matches, split into shots taken and shots allowed, home and away. Next to it is the share of matches over the usual bookmaker lines.
Shot markets are among the least efficiently priced on the market: bookmakers set their lines with a lag and most bettors never analyse them. This is where statistics show the biggest deviation from the price.
How to use the shot statistics
Look at both sides: a team that shoots a lot against a team that allows a lot is the strongest over signal. A team dominating possession against a side defending deep produces shots one-sidedly — then the "home team shots" market is better than the match total.
Shots on target swing more than total shots because they depend on finishing quality; treat them with more care on small samples. Compare the model's rate with the odds as with goals: 60% from the model at odds 1.90 (53%) is a deviation, 55% is not.
What moves the number of shots
Playing style above all: pressing and fast transitions produce many shots at both ends, positional dominance many at one. The score during the match matters too: a trailing team shoots more often and from worse positions, so matches with an early goal usually finish higher.
The market counts shots according to each bookmaker's official data provider, and these can differ by several shots between sources. Our numbers come from one source for all matches, so comparisons between matches are consistent.
Frequently asked questions
- What counts as a shot on target?
- A shot that would have gone in but for the goalkeeper or a defender on the line, plus any goal. A shot hitting the post or blocked by a defender away from the line is not on target. Data providers apply different thresholds for blocks — check the bookmaker's rules.
- Why does the shot count vary so much between matches?
- Because it depends on both teams' style and on how the match unfolds. Two fast, open teams take 30 shots between them; a tactical match produces 15. That is why we show averages separately for shots taken and allowed by each side.
- How is this database different from the tips for today?
- It is a tool for your own analysis of every match of the day and any date. The tips pages show a short, frozen list of events with odds — here you see all matches and choose yourself.
- What does Premium unlock in shots?
- Without an account you see the first matches of the day with the expected shot count. Premium shows the whole list, the percentages for every Over/Under line separately for total, on-target and off-target shots, the split by team, and any past day.