Picks recorded on September 7, 2026: tips of the day, bankers and gems from odds movement, recorded as they appeared — each with the odds as recorded and the result.
Three picks a day from odds movement: events a licensed bookmaker prices at least 10% above Pinnacle's fair odds, at odds 1.50–2.50, for a match kicking off within the next 8 hours. Slots open at 08:00, 12:00 and 15:00 (Warsaw) — each takes the highest edge on the board at that moment, recorded with the price and the minute — and we settle each at the recorded odds after the match. Every pick carries a second opinion: our statistical model's probability.
List frozen on Sep 7 at 08:30 AM. Odds as published, result after the match.
The event occurred in 15 of the home side's last 25 matches (60%) and in 16 of the away side's last 25 (64%). Head-to-head: 3 of 5.
Model: 62% vs odds 2.35 (≈43%) — value +45.7%.
The event occurred in 17 of the home side's last 25 matches (68%) and in 20 of the away side's last 25 (80%). Head-to-head: 2 of 2.
Model: 74% vs odds 1.83 (≈55%) — value +35.4%.
The event occurred in 13 of the home side's last 25 matches (52%) and in 17 of the away side's last 25 (68%). Head-to-head: 0 of 2.
Model: 60% vs odds 2.20 (≈46%) — value +32%.
The event occurred in 21 of the home side's last 25 matches (84%) and in 17 of the away side's last 25 (68%). Head-to-head: 7 of 25.
Model: 76% vs odds 1.73 (≈58%) — value +31.5%.
The event occurred in 17 of the home side's last 25 matches (68%) and in 14 of the away side's last 25 (56%). Head-to-head: 2 of 6.
Model: 62% vs odds 2.10 (≈48%) — value +30.2%.
Day's balance: +0.91 u (3 won · 2 lost)
These are three of dozens of signals a day, at a price from hours ago. The Moneyflow module shows all of them live — from 3% edge, with the sharp limit, price movement and a Telegram alert — while the price is still there.
Open MoneyflowThree favourites a day the bookmaker underrates: Pinnacle gives the event at least 70%, and a licensed bookmaker pays at least 5% more than the fair price, at odds 1.15–1.70. A high hit rate by design and an edge in the price — both show in the record. Every pick carries our statistical model's second opinion.
List frozen on Sep 7 at 08:30 AM. Odds as published, result after the match.
The event occurred in 23 of the home side's last 25 matches (92%) and in 24 of the away side's last 25 (96%). Head-to-head: 6 of 10.
Model: 94% vs odds 1.22 (≈82%) — value +14.7%.
The event occurred in 24 of the home side's last 25 matches (96%) and in 22 of the away side's last 25 (88%). Head-to-head: 16 of 25.
Model: 92% vs odds 1.28 (≈78%) — value +17.8%.
The event occurred in 23 of the home side's last 25 matches (92%) and in 23 of the away side's last 25 (92%). Head-to-head: 20 of 22.
Model: 92% vs odds 1.20 (≈83%) — value +10.4%.
The event occurred in 23 of the home side's last 25 matches (92%) and in 23 of the away side's last 25 (92%). Head-to-head: 22 of 25.
Model: 92% vs odds 1.17 (≈86%) — value +7.6%.
The event occurred in 22 of the home side's last 25 matches (88%) and in 23 of the away side's last 25 (92%). Head-to-head: 17 of 25.
Model: 90% vs odds 1.17 (≈86%) — value +5.3%.
Day's balance: +1.04 u (5 won · 0 lost)
A sample of the Moneyflow module: up to three picks a day where a soft bookmaker prices an event at least 20% above Pinnacle's fair odds, at odds up to 2.00. Odds and time as of recording — the price may have dropped since.
2 picks recorded as they appeared (04:02 PM–10:54 PM). Odds as recorded, result after the match.
Pinnacle prices this event at 1.58 with the margin removed (≈63%); sts offers 1.90 — a +20% edge over the sharpest price on the market.
Recorded at 04:02 PM, 2 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. Pinnacle stake limit at the time: €200.
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Pinnacle prices this event at 1.53 with the margin removed (≈65%); lvbet offers 1.88 — a +23% edge over the sharpest price on the market.
Recorded at 10:54 PM, 11.8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. Pinnacle stake limit at the time: €125.
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Day's balance: +1.78 u (2 won · 0 lost)
