Tips from September 22, 2026

Picks recorded on September 22, 2026: tips of the day, bankers and gems from odds movement, recorded as they appeared — each with the odds as recorded and the result.

Tips of the day, with odds

Three picks a day from odds movement: events a licensed bookmaker prices at least 10% above the sharp bookmaker's fair odds, at odds 1.50–2.50, for a match kicking off within the next 8 hours. Slots open at 08:00, 12:00 and 15:00 (Warsaw) — each takes the highest deviation on the board at that moment, recorded with the price and the minute — and we settle each at the recorded odds after the match. Every pick carries a second opinion: our statistical model's probability.

2 picks recorded as they appeared (11:50 AM–12:56 PM). Odds as recorded, result after the match.

#1Norway · 3. Division - Girone 505:30 PM

SkjettenSkjervøy

Over 4.5 goals

at admiralbet

Odds at 11:50 AM

2.32

Fair (sharp): 48%
Model: 36%
implied: 43%
Value: +10.5%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 2.10 with the margin removed (≈48%); admiralbet offers 2.32 — a +10.5% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Second opinion — our statistical model: 36% (the price implies 43%); the model is more cautious here than the sharp bookmaker. The event occurred in 7 of the home side's last 25 matches and in 11 of the away side's last 25.

Recorded at 11:50 AM, 5.7 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €125.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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#2England · Professional Development League02:00 PM

Wigan Athletic U21Coventry City U21

Away win

at merkurbets

Odds at 12:56 PM

2.26

Fair (sharp): 51%
implied: 44%
Value: +14.2%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.98 with the margin removed (≈51%); merkurbets offers 2.26 — a +14.2% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 12:56 PM, 1.1 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €500.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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Record · last 90 days · since Sep 7

20 won · 19 lost · 5 void · 2 pending

Hit rate: 51.3%
Yield: +12.1%
Profit (1-unit stakes): +4.72 u
tips: 20 / 19 / 5

These are three of dozens of signals a day, at a price from hours ago. The Moneyflow module shows all of them live — from 3% deviation, with the sharp limit, price movement and a Telegram alert — while the price is still there.

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Today's bankers

Three favourites a day the bookmaker underrates: The sharp bookmaker gives the event at least 70%, and a licensed bookmaker pays at least 5% more than the fair price, at odds 1.15–1.70. A high hit rate by design and a deviation in the price — both show in the record. Every pick carries our statistical model's second opinion.

2 picks recorded as they appeared (10:46 AM–12:50 PM). Odds as recorded, result after the match.

#1Scotland · Challenge Cup08:45 PM

DumbartonKilmarnock II

Dumbarton — draw no bet

at etoto

Odds at 10:46 AM

1.51

Fair (sharp): 72%
implied: 66%
Value: +7.5%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.39 with the margin removed (≈72%); etoto offers 1.51 — a +7.5% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 10:46 AM, 10 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €175.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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#2World · CONCACAF Nations League10:00 PM

BahamasSaint Martin

Saint Martin — draw no bet

at etoto

Odds at 12:50 PM

1.32

Fair (sharp): 80%
implied: 76%
Value: +5.3%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.25 with the margin removed (≈80%); etoto offers 1.32 — a +5.3% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 12:50 PM, 33.2 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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Record · last 90 days · since Sep 7

27 won · 14 lost · 5 void · 2 pending

Hit rate: 65.9%
Yield: -7.3%
Profit (1-unit stakes): -2.98 u
tips: 27 / 14 / 5

Moneyflow gems — value from odds movement

A sample of the Moneyflow module: up to three picks a day where a soft bookmaker prices an event at least 20% above the sharp bookmaker's fair odds, at odds up to 2.00. Odds and time as of recording — the price may have dropped since.

One pick, recorded at 11:14 AM. Odds as of recording, result after the match.

#1Denmark · Kvindeliga07:00 PM

AGF WNordsjælland W

AGF W (+3.0) Asian handicap

at admiralbet

Odds at 11:14 AM

1.82

Fair (sharp): 67%
implied: 55%
Value: +21.8%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.49 with the margin removed (≈67%); admiralbet offers 1.82 — a +21.8% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 11:14 AM, 7.8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €175.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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Record · last 90 days · since Sep 7

19 won · 15 lost · 4 void · 1 pending

Hit rate: 55.9%
Yield: +6.5%
Profit (1-unit stakes): +2.22 u
tips: 19 / 15 / 4