Tips from September 25, 2026

Picks recorded on September 25, 2026: tips of the day, bankers and gems from odds movement, recorded as they appeared — each with the odds as recorded and the result.

Tips of the day, with odds

Three picks a day from odds movement: events a licensed bookmaker prices at least 10% above the sharp bookmaker's fair odds, at odds 1.50–2.50, for a match kicking off within the next 8 hours. Slots open at 08:00, 12:00 and 15:00 (Warsaw) — each takes the highest deviation on the board at that moment, recorded with the price and the minute — and we settle each at the recorded odds after the match. Every pick carries a second opinion: our statistical model's probability.

3 picks recorded as they appeared (08:00 AM–03:12 PM). Odds as recorded, result after the match.

#1Poland · III Liga - Group 104:00 PM

SwitŁomża

Łomża (+0.5) Asian handicap

at superbet

Odds at 08:00 AM

2.32

Fair (sharp): 49%
implied: 43%
Value: +14.2%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 2.03 with the margin removed (≈49%); superbet offers 2.32 — a +14.2% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 08:00 AM, 8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €125.

Lost· 4:0Match stats: form, H2H, goals

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#2Poland · III Liga - Group 104:00 PM

Wisła Płock IIJagiellonia II

Jagiellonia II: over 1.5 goals

at superbet

Odds at 12:00 PM

2.27

Fair (sharp): 52%
implied: 44%
Value: +18.9%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.91 with the margin removed (≈52%); superbet offers 2.27 — a +18.9% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 12:00 PM, 4 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since.

Lost· 2:1Match stats: form, H2H, goals

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#3Brazil · Paulista - U2009:00 PM

Palmeiras U20Ituano U20

Palmeiras U20 (-2.5) Asian handicap

at tipico

Odds at 03:12 PM

2.30

Fair (sharp): 49%
implied: 44%
Value: +11.9%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 2.06 with the margin removed (≈49%); tipico offers 2.30 — a +11.9% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 03:12 PM, 5.8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €125.

Lost· 2:1Match stats: form, H2H, goals

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Day's balance: -3.00 u (0 won · 3 lost)

Record · last 90 days · since Sep 7

23 won · 27 lost · 6 void

Hit rate: 46%
Yield: +1.8%
Profit (1-unit stakes): +0.88 u
tips: 23 / 27 / 6

These are three of dozens of signals a day, at a price from hours ago. The Moneyflow module shows all of them live — from 3% deviation, with the sharp limit, price movement and a Telegram alert — while the price is still there.

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Today's bankers

Three favourites a day the bookmaker underrates: The sharp bookmaker gives the event at least 70%, and a licensed bookmaker pays at least 5% more than the fair price, at odds 1.15–1.70. A high hit rate by design and a deviation in the price — both show in the record. Every pick carries our statistical model's second opinion.

3 picks recorded as they appeared (01:26 AM–02:14 PM). Odds as recorded, result after the match.

#1Scotland · Challenge Cup08:45 PM

SpartansDundee II

Spartans (-1.0) Asian handicap

at lebull

Odds at 01:26 AM

1.47

Fair (sharp): 72%
implied: 68%
Value: +6%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.40 with the margin removed (≈72%); lebull offers 1.47 — a +6% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 01:26 AM, 19.3 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €125.

Void· 1:0Match stats: form, H2H, goals

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#2World · UEFA Nations League08:45 PM

TürkiyeFrance

Away win

at bet3000de

Odds at 08:16 AM

1.45

Fair (sharp): 73%
implied: 69%
Value: +5.3%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.38 with the margin removed (≈73%); bet3000de offers 1.45 — a +5.3% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 08:16 AM, 12.5 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €10,000.

Won· 0:1Match stats: form, H2H, goals

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#3Brazil · Paulista - U2008:00 PM

Santo André U20Sertãozinho U20

Santo André U20 — draw no bet

at tipico

Odds at 02:14 PM

1.45

Fair (sharp): 74%
implied: 69%
Value: +7%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.36 with the margin removed (≈74%); tipico offers 1.45 — a +7% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 02:14 PM, 5.8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €125.

Won· 3:0Match stats: form, H2H, goals

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Day's balance: +0.90 u (2 won · 0 lost · 1 void)

Record · last 90 days · since Sep 7

34 won · 14 lost · 7 void · 1 pending

Hit rate: 70.8%
Yield: +0.1%
Profit (1-unit stakes): +0.04 u
tips: 34 / 14 / 7

Moneyflow gems — value from odds movement

A sample of the Moneyflow module: up to three picks a day where a soft bookmaker prices an event at least 20% above the sharp bookmaker's fair odds, at odds up to 2.00. Odds and time as of recording — the price may have dropped since.

3 picks recorded as they appeared (05:42 AM–05:12 PM). Odds as recorded, result after the match.

#1Peru · Liga Women05:30 PM

Killas WFlamengo FBC W

Killas W — draw no bet

at totalbet

Odds at 05:42 AM

2.00

Fair (sharp): 60%
implied: 50%
Value: +20.2%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.66 with the margin removed (≈60%); totalbet offers 2.00 — a +20.2% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 05:42 AM, 11.8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €125.

Won· 1:0Match stats: form, H2H, goals

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#2USA · USL League One01:00 AM

NY CosmosRichmond Kickers

NY Cosmos (-0.5) Asian handicap

at admiralat

Odds at 04:30 PM

1.80

Fair (sharp): 67%
implied: 56%
Value: +20.7%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.49 with the margin removed (≈67%); admiralat offers 1.80 — a +20.7% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 04:30 PM, 32.5 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €100.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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#3El-Salvador · Primera Division04:00 AM

Isidro MetapánCacahuatique

Home win

at admiralat

Odds at 05:12 PM

1.95

Fair (sharp): 63%
implied: 51%
Value: +22%

The sharp bookmaker prices this event at 1.60 with the margin removed (≈63%); admiralat offers 1.95 — a +22% deviation from the sharpest price on the market.

Recorded at 05:12 PM, 34.8 h before kickoff. Odds as of that minute — they may have changed since. The sharp bookmaker stake limit at the time: €100.

PendingMatch stats: form, H2H, goals

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Day's balance: +1.00 u (1 won · 0 lost · 2 pending)

Record · last 90 days · since Sep 7

22 won · 16 lost · 4 void · 4 pending

Hit rate: 57.9%
Yield: +10.6%
Profit (1-unit stakes): +4.04 u
tips: 22 / 16 / 4