Today's value bets
+EVOdds higher than the teams' record suggests. 2,763 value bets today, 3 of them free.
Today's free picks
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In Premium
2,760more value bets today
including 2,517 before kick-off
+61.8%highest value deviation today227 picks from +20%
- Goals2,021
- BTTS249
- Corners417
- Cards76
307 picks start within 2 hours
A free account: 3 picks a day with the full record. All of them with Premium.
What is a value bet?
A value bet is one where the bookmaker's odds sit above the price that the outcome's historical frequency suggests. Odds of 2.00 imply the outcome in 50% of cases; if it happened in 58% of comparable matches, the value is 0.58 × 2.00 − 1 = +16%. The figure describes a price, not a result: any single value bet can lose, and a frequency from past matches does not guarantee that the next one goes the same way.
Bookmakers build a margin into their odds (usually 4–8%), so prices are set slightly against the bettor. This page compares the odds with how often each outcome happened in the teams' recent matches and lists those where the bookmaker's price sits above that frequency. That is a statistical comparison, not a promise of winnings.
How we compute frequency and value
For every match of the day and every market (goals, BTTS, corners, cards, match result, double chance, split into the full match and the halves) we count how often the event happened in both teams' recent matches or in their head-to-head meetings (H2H mode). By default we take 25 matches per team, split into home and away. We compare the historical frequency calculated this way with the best bookmaker's odds: the deviation is how far our frequency sits above the frequency built into the odds.
The list is sorted from the biggest deviation. Each signal shows the odds and the direction they are moving, and in Premium also the full breakdown: the percentage for the home team, the away team and H2H, the number of matches analysed and the odds history. A signal goes out when the odds fall below the deviation threshold, which is why the list changes during the day.
How to read the signals
The default filter caps odds at 2.50, the range where a frequency computed from statistics is most stable and results vary least. Large values at odds above 3.00 are more often a small-sample artefact than a real deviation. The match-count filter lets you raise the sample to 30 matches and see whether the signal survives. The clearest signals are those where both teams clear the threshold separately (say, each had BTTS in over 70% of matches) and the H2H does not contradict it.
Short runs vary a lot: even at +10% value, several misses in a row are a normal part of a run and say nothing about the method. A signal is a statistical observation about a price, not a recommendation to bet. Gambling is for adults only (18+). Set your own limits.
Frequently asked questions
- Is a value bet a sure thing?
- No. A value bet at odds of 2.00 on an outcome that happened in 58% of comparable matches still misses in the other 42%. The value describes the price against past frequencies; it says nothing certain about the next match.
- How should I read the value percentage?
- Signals between +5% and +15% at odds up to 2.50 are the range where statistics from 25 matches are reliable. Treat values above +25% with caution: they usually mean a small sample, a missing key player, or odds about to be cut.
- Why did a signal disappear from the list?
- Odds move all day. When the bookmaker cuts the odds below our value threshold the signal becomes inactive. You can still see it with the status filter.
- What does Premium unlock in value bets?
- Without an account you see three signals a day in the 1.50–1.90 odds range, without the historical frequency. Premium shows the full list (up to 200 signals a day) with frequencies, the home/away/H2H breakdown and odds history, lets you filter markets, halves, odds and sample size, and browse any past day.